Resource Search

The financial crisis that began almost five years ago is still with us, and we are still dominated by the events unfolding in Europe. What are some of the root causes of the crisis, and what is the future likely to hold? This white paper examines the evolution of the financial crisis and offers advice on how investors might best navigate the complex future we face.

Against the backdrop of a double decoupling in growth and inflation between economies in the developed and emerging worlds, investment experts gathered to reappraise and analyze the global economic and financial situation and outlook. The key points and conclusions from their discussions are presented in this new, annual publication.

The U.S. will continue its expansion in 2012, but solid global growth depends on Europe experiencing only a moderate recession and the emerging market economies gaining momentum as the year progresses. Less inflationary pressure should help growth, but intermittent financial market pressures from the European debt crisis likely will cap investor risk appetite.

The most likely outlook for the world economy in 2012 is a global growth recession with global real GDP growth in 2012 of about 3%. The overall economic outlook reflects a full-scale recession in Europe, stagnation or moderate recession in the U.K., near-trend growth in the U.S., continued expansion in Japan, and moderate slowdowns in China and most other emerging markets.

The key theme in the second half of 2011 was one of moderate, sub-par economic growth accompanied by modest inflation pressures and no change in the federal funds target rate. Expect more of the same in 2012, with the economy expanding 2.0% for the year and small gains coming from many sectors of the economy.

Investment strategies based purely on expertise in a particular industry or asset class will be insufficient in 2012; developing a broader view is essential to navigate the increasingly correlated environment. This comprehensive overview is intended to help investors refine their perspective across a host of markets, economies, and industries.

The tone heading into 2012 is cautious, and the year is likely to be one of continued rolling crises. But the U.S. economy has come far and is on much firmer footing than it was in 2008. It is our view that, moving through 2012, the U.S. economy will continue on a path of recovery, while we recognize the need for investors to be agile and diligent.

As the European debt crisis has evolved, shifts in sentiment have caused dramatic swings in capital markets; swings not easily characterized by underlying investment fundamentals. This uncertainty has driven Italian bond yields to dangerously elevated levels while the yield on German one-year notes turned negative – hardly signs of a healthy economic environment.

Global wealth has increased to $231 trillion from $195 trillion in 2010, led by growing wealth in South Africa, India, Australia, Chile, and Singapore. This study of world wealth analyzes trends across nations and over time, including the life cycle link between wealth and age, household wealth, and prospects for personal wealth.

Europe has entered a new stage of the debt crisis, as funding stress in the banking sector has risen to extremes. The bond spreads of Belgium, Austria and France have risen to 290, 150 and 155bps respectively, record highs and 5 to 6 standard deviations above norm. The current trends may be unsustainable if left unchecked for more than a few weeks.