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Invoking emergency powers due to the stated “threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs,” President Trump implemented a 10% tariff on imports from China, a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, and—perhaps most surprisingly—a 25% tariff on imports from Canada (except for Canadian energy imports that receive a 10% tariff). These tariffs are sending shockwaves through financial markets both in North America and around the globe as investors reevaluate their portfolio positioning and investment strategies. In the short-term, risks are heightened.

The private equity market is navigating through a period of volatility, driven by inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties. While some regions, such as North America and Asia-Pacific, remain confident in the face of these challenges, others, particularly in Europe, are more cautious.

The good fortune of high productivity growth and a surge in available labor has propelled the U.S. economy, while other economies have been less lucky. A key risk to the U.S. outlook is the potential waning of the positive supply-side factors, though expansionary fiscal policy may cushion any negative impact on growth as the era of sound money lives on.

Emerging markets (EMs) remain an efficient gateway to powerful secular themes, from technology-driven transformations to consumer growth stories. However, expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar are likely to challenge EM currencies and investor sentiment in 2025, and the 2024 U.S. election introduced a new layer of uncertainty. While EMs present a landscape of opportunity amid increasing macroeconomic headwinds, investors should be prepared for uneven outcomes across regions.

The expectations of an economic soft landing and favorable equity market in both 2023 and 2024 were possible due to the positive underpinnings of a healthy labor market, falling inflation, and a Fed pivot to rate cutting. In 2025, however, expectations are higher, policy shifts are underway, and several new factors that include tariffs, trade wars, budget deficits, long-term interest rates, and stock market valuation are primed to collide.

The private credit asset class has developed and evolved significantly since the Global Financial Crisis. Accounting for $1.6 trillion across a wide range of risk and return profiles, it is cementing its importance and value in investor portfolios. This paper by Cambridge Associates describes why private credit can be attractive in any market, outlines the various sub-asset classes, and discusses the construction of a private credit portfolio and its implementation into a portfolio.

More than $80 trillion of wealth is expected to be transferred within families over the next two decades. Given the rise in wealth and aging populations globally, the number of family offices has surged to help guide succession planning and the transfer of assets. This brief outlook by Asset Consulting Group further highlights the investing trends impacting the path forward for families and family offices that is shifting as the next generation potentially reorients family goals toward qualitative objections (mission-driven) in addition to quantitative metrics (investment returns).