The Long Road to Recovery

Many will recall Carmen Reinhart’s and Kenneth Rogoff’s "This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," which had a significant impact on the public discussion over the relationship between debt and economic growth following its publication in 2011. In this article, Rockefeller & Co. Senior Advisor and Economist Matthew D. Gelfand dissects Reinhart and Rogoff's analysis. While Gelfand’s observations on the lessons presented in the work provide valuable insight into our understanding of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the article provides perhaps greater value in its summary of the types of factors that may be viewed as warning signs of future financial crises.