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The close of each economic cycle and the start of the next carry a unique set of circumstances and challenges. From the vantage point of the depths of the decline, the conditions needed to produce a new expansion can appear daunting. Yet, a signal feature of the U.S. economy, one that has persisted since World War II, has been its ability to shake off the troubles of the failing cycle and ably power into a fresh expansion. In this Capital Markets Forecast report, we look at how to best mitigate today the long-term investment risk of a possibly retreating U.S. economy tomorrow.

The U.S. economy’s coming decade will be shaped by a tug-of-war between artificial intelligence (AI) and demographics-driven deficits. The victor—and its margin of victory—will determine whether economic growth exceeds its disappointing pace since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. By focusing on four key variables and assigning probabilities to future outcomes, this “Megatrends” research by Vanguard explores the long-term nature of massive shifts in technology, demographics, and globalization.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is set as a rematch between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Each candidate’s fiscal priorities have already been on display in their first terms and give insight into second-term agendas. This brief outlook by Asset Consulting Group compares their track records and the market impact, including the growing borrowing costs for the treasury that are putting a greater burden on the federal budget.

Looking at the economic outlook for the U.S. and across the rest of the globe, Doug McHoney and Alexis Crow at PwC discuss the recession outlook and economic activity of some significant economies, the impact of inflation, central bank policy, including interest rates, commercial real estate and financial stability, currencies and the future of the U.S. Dollar, energy transition, and the U.S. election outlook. As PwC’s Geopolitical Investing Practice Leader, Alexis also speaks about the macrotrends that fascinate her and one thing she is hopeful about in the future.