Megatrends: AI, Demographics, and the U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy’s coming decade will be shaped by a tug-of-war between artificial intelligence (AI) and demographics-driven deficits. The victor—and its margin of victory—will determine whether economic growth exceeds its disappointing pace since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. By focusing on four key variables and assigning probabilities to future outcomes, this “Megatrends” research by Vanguard explores the long-term nature of massive shifts in technology, demographics, and globalization. The most likely outcome is optimistic with technology prevailing—catalyzing a surge in worker productivity, offsetting demographic pressures.