Amid an increasingly volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape, the private equity (PE) sector faces mounting challenges across the deal lifecycle—from fundraising to deal execution and exits. In turn, PE sponsors are seeking strategies to extract increased value from portfolio companies beyond the traditional cost cutting exercises. One underutilized and effective strategy is to optimize a portfolio company’s cash flows to enhance overall business performance, create operational value, and unlock substantial returns.
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Fundamental equity long/short (ELS) strategies have faced challenges since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, but the tide may be turning. The recent increase in cash yields and higher equity dispersion create a more favorable environment for the short book and will offer opportunities for managers to distinguish themselves. Moreover, with equity markets having experienced a massive rally over the last decade and trading at elevated valuations, it is prudent for investors to consider adding more defensive strategies like ELS to their portfolios.
2025 stands at a crossroads. In the prior year, nearly half of the world’s population across more than 70 countries participated in national elections, artificial intelligence gained considerable traction in the marketplace, and several banks initiated a synchronized interest rate-cutting cycle. Each of these developments alone creates a complex landscape to navigate. Yet, the situation is further complicated by heightened geopolitical risks and an investment environment brimming with uncertainties.
The private equity market is navigating through a period of volatility, driven by inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties. While some regions, such as North America and Asia-Pacific, remain confident in the face of these challenges, others, particularly in Europe, are more cautious.
With the return of the Trump administration, observers expect meaningful changes in political direction and economic and tax policy, but specifics and timing are unknown. Given the degree of uncertainty, investors should remain diversified and focus on both risk and liquidity management. Within private equity, deals that emphasize operational improvement may be better positioned than those focuses on leverage and financial engineering. As the Trump agenda takes shape, a thoughtful balance of caution and opportunism will be key.
It’s no secret that artificial intelligence (AI) is a pivotal force in the current technological transformation. But as Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis explains and as their research on AI, demographics, and the U.S. economy suggests, it may not be wise to focus solely on tech stocks for investment outperformance. In this discussion with Davis, learn more about the potential investment implications and why equity investors should look beyond tech.
The year 2024 is now in the history books, marking three notable market highlights: a very good year for U.S., the AI gold rush broadening to other industries and sectors, and a surprisingly tough year for U.S. bonds. Looking ahead to what’s next in 2025, Chief Investment Officer Pete Chiappinelli of Ballentine Partners sees thirteen areas for investors to keep in mind—and it starts with the resilient strength of the U.S. economy.
While 2024 saw global asset prices reach record highs, family office investors may benefit from reassessing both their expectations and how their investable assets are positioned for the future. We explore the possibility of a shifting investment landscape and why the years ahead may present a more challenging backdrop for sustaining and growing wealth. 2025 FOX Foresight is presented in 8 chapters and can be viewed here, or individually in the "Related Resources" column below.
For many investors, fund-of-funds (FOFs) are the only way to replicate a large, diversified private equity (PE) program and is preferable to constructing a PE program oneself. Another important benefit of a FOF is the ability to aggregate hundreds of potential underlying portfolio capital calls into just a few. On the operational side, FOFs can reduce both the complexity and capital call requirements of a robust PE program. For the investors considering a FOF strategy, a historical analysis also shows the potential for superior investment outcomes.
Byron Trott, Chairman and Co-CEO of BDT & MSD Partners and long-time advisor to business owners and private families, will join Nate Hamilton in a discussion on the landscape of private family capital in 2024 and the trends shaping the distinct needs of business-owning families and long-term investors.