Resource Search

Researchers predicted in late 2009 that large funds could need much more than their typical five-year investment period to invest their capital. Recent projections consider the more active transaction volume and suggest the overhang would more likely require only six years to fully invest.

Difficult financial times are likely to continue, affecting all aspects of the economy and the markets, but the high-quality subsector of the municipal market is not at risk for significant defaults or losses. Debt burdens are relatively light, and annual required payments are often senior to most other budget items.

Cyclical volatility appears to be a defining characteristic of contemporary financial markets. Researchers reflect on the past two decades to identify common factors behind financial crises and caution about where the next bubble might be forming. They also consider life after debt, the fate of the euro, the Asian factor, and what to do now.

The authors have contended since late 2008 that the global deleveraging process is likely to occur in multiple stages and last until 2014 or 2015. Investors need to be aware of this cycle in allocating assets and to focus on capital preservation while resisting the temptation to be swayed by short-term volatility.

Recent moves by the Fed are more symptomatic of the economic malaise and not the cause. As a result, their effect on the markets is fairly unimportant. The equity markets are weak not because of low rates but because of the characterization by the Fed and many market prognosticators that the economy is so much weaker than expected.

The marginal utility of the Fed's tools is decreasing. And relying on that one agency to turn activity from the greatest recession on record does not seem logical. The rest of Washington needs to notice the economic malaise and work together to resolve some of the economic challenges we face.

Recent economic reports have presented relatively good news, but investors seem unwilling to buy in to optimism. Although recent price declines have pushed stocks into bear market territory, stocks remain a good choice vs. cash for long-term investors. In 10 years, stock earnings and valuations are likely to be higher than today.

While high yield spreads are likely to remain volatile until Europe's problems are resolved, the purge of high leveraged credits during 2008 and 2009, coupled with a lack of aggressive re-leveraging of balance sheets thereafter, should limit the severity of the next default wave absent a severe recession or systemic bank failure in Europe.

The lack of emphasis on jobs has caused unemployment to remain high and become increasingly structural. Structural unemployment typically lasts longer and, as workers lose basic skills, becomes less susceptible to monetary and fiscal measures. That, unfortunately, is where the nation finds itself.

While things may very well turn out well for risky assets in the coming months, the possibility of a messy European outcome or for further political and economic turmoil in the U.S. is significant and cannot be ignored. Emerging economies, while not immune to the travails of Europe, Japan and the U.S., remain resilient and their stock markets offer good value and growth prospects.