We anticipate a period of market consolidation leading up to, and including, the summer and would not be surprised to see more elevated levels of volatility. However, over the longer term we see risk assets continuing to be supported by valuations and abundant liquidity, although tail risks to growth from global fiscal policy remain.
Equity markets around the globe took a breather from the prior six months’ impressive run-up. Since the 2011 low on October 4, 2011, the MSCI World Index had rallied 22% by the end of March 2012. A mild pull-back is thus nothing unusual. However, the financial market optimism exhibited in the first quarter of 2012 has been tainted with a dose of uncertainty (or perhaps reality) of late. The European sovereign debt crisis has made its presence felt once again, just like the hockey mask-wearing Jason Voorhees character in the Friday the 13th horror film series.
In spite of government intervention, economic recovery in most developed economies remains anaemic and equity markets volatile. At the same time, the emerging markets continue to surge. This keynote address given at the 2012 Global Investment Forum by a respected investment strategist examined the structural forces that are reshaping the investment landscape and addressed the optimal investment strategy for families in the short and long-term. Key areas of focus:
With the looming December 31 expiration of the Bush tax cuts, the threat of sequestration, and the need to raise the debt ceiling in January, neither Democrats nor Republicans will want to face the consequences of inaction and/or no agreement. The nature of these issues and the convergence of interests and deadlines lead us to predict a deal that fully or substantially avoids sequestration, partially extends the Bush tax cuts, and raises the debt ceiling.
The pace of U.S. job growth in the next few months will not only determine the outcome of the November presidential election but also whether there will be a sustainable economic recovery. If the sharp slowdown in job creation in March is a precursor for developments in subsequent months as we suspect, the mid-year slowdown witnessed in the past couple of years may well get repeated in 2012.
Many clients and their advisors are holding their breath waiting to see whether the November elections will provide greater clarity as to the future legislative environment for wealth-owning families. This 2012 Wealth Advisor Forum session examined the interrelationship of politics and economics, particularly effects on individual investors. By outlining and exploring different potential scenarios, you can better prepare yourself and your clients for managing the uncertainties that lie ahead.
The weak March U.S. jobs report caught investors by surprise, but we think it’s reflective of the muted growth environment faced by developed nations. U.S. economic activity was likely boosted in the first quarter by exceptionally mild weather, and we should expect some payback during coming months
We continue to be optimistic that earnings will validate market prices, suggesting equities will offer greater reward than bonds. Selected equities also have dividend yields above those available from investment-grade bonds. In many instances, these dividends are supported by growing earnings, raising the likelihood of their increase.
We remain vigilant in assessing near-term and longer-term risks, including U.S. austerity, resurfacing of Eurozone tensions, a Chinese economic slowdown, and oil prices/conflict in Iran. Market gains from here will be built on the back of these risks further receding and the maintenance of global economic growth. We have more confidence in the latter but know the former can result in a bumpy ride.
The effect of high oil prices on the financial markets is not clear, as there is evidence to support both a benign and more worrying view. In general, investors will start to discount a worse economic environment if we sustain significant future price increases, but the current level of global oil prices should not be a deal-killer for growth or risk taking.