Our January 2016 commentary suggested “…we are in a transition period between central bank-induced liquidity and eventual normalization of markets. This transition period has been and will continue to be a bit choppy…”
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Brought on by concerns about the strength of the global economy and extreme investor pessimism, the volatile start to 2016 drove many equity markets near or into bear market territory. A subsequent rally began mid-February from severely oversold conditions as it became clear that the U.S. was not headed for a recession. As is common during volatile market environments, investors were quick to react to negative headlines, feeding the tendency to panic when things seem at their worst. In investing, however, it is important to avoid making emotional decisions.
The spillover of recent market volatility from China into the rest of the world reflects poor communication by Chinese authorities and a lack of transparency of their ultimate goals. The backdrop of global volatility is also reflective of rising fears of geopolitical risks, especially a Middle Eastern conflict. Economic growth indicators have also been somewhat soft. Despite the market fears and stock market circuit breaker, the global economy is likely to remain on stable footing and that the sharp drop in Chinese equities is due to localized structural, not global economic factors.
The wealthy are caught in the high-beam headlights of toxic rhetoric around equity, inequality, greed, power, excessive affluence, and influence of the wealthiest 1 percent. This has become a hot issue in the political environment, where both old media and new social media continue to add data that fuels the growing anger toward, and mistrust of, wealth. It raises the question of what are realistic responses for those with wealth, the families and individuals who are in the 1 percent, even if their wealth is nowhere on the scale of the very wealthiest.
Last week was relatively quiet in terms of global economic data, with investors watching actions by central banks. The European Central Bank announced additional monthly asset purchases and cuts to interest rates, which President Mario Draghi believes will be sufficient to support economic activity. This week, meetings are scheduled for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Federal Reserve. The Fed is unlikely to change policy this month, but will likely see sufficiently positive economic data to raise rates in June.
Financial markets steadied through the end of February and into early March, led by stabilizing oil prices, relief in the exchange value of the Chinese yuan and other emerging market currencies, and some improved domestic economic data points. Stronger retail sales, industrial production and jobless claims helped alleviate near-term recession fears. Fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised slightly higher to 1 percent, and first quarter GDP appears in line with the modest trend of the past several years.
U.S. equities are entering 2016 and approaching the seven-year bull market anniversary amidst market crosscurrents, however, macro and fundamental backdrops remain favorable for equities. Inflation, earnings, valuation, interest rates, and sentiment are all generally supportive of equity prices.
The easy investment returns enjoyed since the end of the financial crisis have succumbed to the pressures of elevated valuations, Federal Reserve tightening and oil price declines, which have created significant volatility, bearish sentiment and losses among investors. This changed investment environment has caused a wave of worries, with many wondering how to navigate the choppy waters of the marketplace and subdued economic growth.
This economic cycle has been a long one, seven years without a slowdown. Any other time, people would be near the doors, ready to get out. But this market has been slowly evolving and though many people thought they could outsmart the market over the last seven years, those who took a long-term strategic mindset—measuring success in the capital markets over years and decades, not weeks and quarters—are the ones who did well. Investment thinkers who apply the long-term view also see abundant opportunities in the next 10 years.