Capital Perspectives, October 2016

What if Trump trumps Clinton in the U.S. Election? With just a few weeks remaining, the markets have not meaningfully priced in the chance of a Trump presidency. While indeed this is not the base case scenario, the outcome of the election is sufficiently unclear that serious consideration should be given to the potential impact of a Trump victory on the economy and the markets over the short term. And at least over that short term, there are concerns. By contrast, the markets would likely take a Hillary Clinton victory as an extension of the status quo and not react dramatically.