Market volatility in late 2018 has investors wondering if 2019 will bring global recession and investment losses. Chief Investment Strategist Jim McDonald answers tough questions about the global economy and how markets should react. Chief Economist Carl R. Tannenbaum also shares his views on the nature of recessions.
One element of successful investing is assessing how investor expectations may change over time. We began warning in mid-2018 of a growth slowdown in 2019, which came to a head in the fourth quarter when growth concerns led to a significant reduction in risk appetite and valuations. Souring investor expectations set the stage for positive surprises over the next year, which we think improves the outlook for risk taking.
In response to the proliferation of new private credit strategies and managers, a new set of benchmarks was developed to help limited partners assess the performance of new and existing fund managers (general partners or GPs). By focusing on the underlying risks assumed by a credit manager, the subordinated capital and broad credit opportunities benchmarks will assist limited partners in better evaluating risk-adjusted performance and identifying the most talented managers.
Private investments, particularly private equity and venture capital have provided the strongest relative returns for decades. For families with multigenerational wealth, they may be particularly well positioned to consider allocating 40% or more of their assets to private investments. Assuming these families have the requisite long-term time horizon, patience, and ability to act quickly, they stand to benefit not only from the potential for higher returns but also from the tax-advantaged nature of private investments. Life could get better after 40%.
The year 2018 ended on a far different note than it started, with the economy stronger and markets weaker than most had projected at the outset. More perplexingly, underlying economic fundamentals remain quite strong with declining gas prices and interests, and steady jobs and wage growth.
Family offices are forging ahead despite volatility and uncertainty in the markets—increasing their appetite for direct investments in real estate and operating businesses—as they continue to reassess the more traditional approaches to building investment portfolios.
At the start of 2019, the market’s perception of risks and the resulting volatility is high, a stark contrast to the complacency and strong growth expectations in the prior year. It is important to reflect on recent history, but it is also important to recognize how expectations can change and stay grounded in a broad understanding of the business environment and market valuations—thus our themes as outlined in this Market Insights: the late stage expansion; the not-so-invisible hand; diversification fatigue; and not all international markets are equal.
There are three reasons why investors should be considering preferreds in a rising rates environment: its low duration structures, its wide credit spreads, and its high levels of income. In this video, Brian Cordes, discusses the reasons and highlights how preferreds can also offer some of the highest tax advantage income in the markets today.
Despite mounting cost pressures on their supply chains, just a fraction of middle market companies appear to be hedging commodity prices for the longer term. In this issue of The Real Economy, we examine that topic, as well as a government shutdown’s fallout on food stamp program funding, real GDP growth projections, and the current state of environmental, social and corporate governance practices, benefits, and reporting challenges.
With the emergence of "new and improved" non-traded REITs (NTRs), some investors have shrugged off the industry's checkered past, seeing NTRs as a less volatile alternative to listed REITs. However, investors may not realize they are paying higher fees for lower return potential, along with less liquidity, less diversification, and less pricing transparency. Here is a look at some of the lesser-known aspects of NTRs and how they stack up against listed REITs.