The good fortune of high productivity growth and a surge in available labor has propelled the U.S. economy, while other economies have been less lucky. A key risk to the U.S. outlook is the potential waning of the positive supply-side factors, though expansionary fiscal policy may cushion any negative impact on growth as the era of sound money lives on.
Economic Cycles and Market Outlook
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Emerging Markets 2025: A Landscape of Opportunity
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Emerging markets (EMs) remain an efficient gateway to powerful secular themes, from technology-driven transformations to consumer growth stories. However, expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar are likely to challenge EM currencies and investor sentiment in 2025, and the 2024 U.S. election introduced a new layer of uncertainty. While EMs present a landscape of opportunity amid increasing macroeconomic headwinds, investors should be prepared for uneven outcomes across regions.
The 2024 economic environment presented a complex landscape for family office investments, characterized by heightened global uncertainty and an evolving interest rate backdrop. As central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, navigate the aftermath of prolonged accommodative policies, family offices are recalibrating their investment strategies to adapt to these changes.
The 2024 economic environment presented a complex landscape for family office investments, characterized by heightened global uncertainty and an evolving interest rate backdrop. As central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, navigate the aftermath of prolonged accommodative policies, family offices are recalibrating their investment strategies to adapt to these changes.
2024 Private Equity Survey
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Although private equity (PE) has been grappling with high interest rates, PE funds and their portfolio companies are marching forward. With inflation moderating and expectations for a rate cut, there is growing cautious optimism for improved PE M&A activity. This Private Equity Survey by BDO polled 484 U.S. PE fund managers and operating partners and 208 CFOs of U.S. portfolio companies to uncover their strategies, concerns, and overall pulse.
The close of each economic cycle and the start of the next carry a unique set of circumstances and challenges. From the vantage point of the depths of the decline, the conditions needed to produce a new expansion can appear daunting. Yet, a signal feature of the U.S. economy, one that has persisted since World War II, has been its ability to shake off the troubles of the failing cycle and ably power into a fresh expansion. In this Capital Markets Forecast report, we look at how to best mitigate today the long-term investment risk of a possibly retreating U.S. economy tomorrow.
A year ago, consensus calls were for looming recession and continued Fed cuts. Instead, economic progress has held steady, labor markets are in better balance, AI’s influence is seemingly everywhere, and inflation is edging bumpily toward the Fed’s target of 2%. As we enter the back half of the year how will markets, interest rates, and the economy perform? Are consumers tapped out? What potential repercussions might arise from divergent Global Central Bank polices? Does the 2024 political cycle hold significance for markets, rates, industrial policy?
Forward-Looking Themes and Forum Closing | 2024 FOX Family Office & Wealth Advisor Forum
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Forum Closing and Forward-Looking Themes Peter Moustakerski, CEO, FOX
Trends Transforming Management of Family Wealth | 2024 FOX Family Office & Wealth Advisor Forum
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A convergence of mega trends is transforming the way we think about and manage family wealth. FOX will share its perspective and latest research on what is rapidly becoming a new age of family wealth management. David Toth, President, Membership, FOX
Megatrends: AI, Demographics, and the U.S. Economy
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The U.S. economy’s coming decade will be shaped by a tug-of-war between artificial intelligence (AI) and demographics-driven deficits. The victor—and its margin of victory—will determine whether economic growth exceeds its disappointing pace since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. By focusing on four key variables and assigning probabilities to future outcomes, this “Megatrends” research by Vanguard explores the long-term nature of massive shifts in technology, demographics, and globalization.