Resource Search

The U.S. economy’s coming decade will be shaped by a tug-of-war between artificial intelligence (AI) and demographics-driven deficits. The victor—and its margin of victory—will determine whether economic growth exceeds its disappointing pace since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. By focusing on four key variables and assigning probabilities to future outcomes, this “Megatrends” research by Vanguard explores the long-term nature of massive shifts in technology, demographics, and globalization.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is set as a rematch between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Each candidate’s fiscal priorities have already been on display in their first terms and give insight into second-term agendas. This brief outlook by Asset Consulting Group compares their track records and the market impact, including the growing borrowing costs for the treasury that are putting a greater burden on the federal budget.

Looking at the economic outlook for the U.S. and across the rest of the globe, Doug McHoney and Alexis Crow at PwC discuss the recession outlook and economic activity of some significant economies, the impact of inflation, central bank policy, including interest rates, commercial real estate and financial stability, currencies and the future of the U.S. Dollar, energy transition, and the U.S. election outlook. As PwC’s Geopolitical Investing Practice Leader, Alexis also speaks about the macrotrends that fascinate her and one thing she is hopeful about in the future.

Since 1986, Byron R. Wein gave his views on a number of economic, financial, and political surprises for the coming year. By “surprise,” Byron defined it as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chances of taking place but which he believed had a better than 50% likelihood of happening. Paying homage to Byron’s annual “10 Surprises” in this video, NEPC’s Phillip Nelson and Tim McCusker discuss their own predictions for 2024—their five market themes for 2024: cost of capital, magnificent 7, U.S. fiscal debt, artificial intelligence, and geopolitics.

The uneven historic GDP growth, deflation, and low corporate productivity have made Japan a tough market for investors. But given the strong performance in 2023, the Japanese market is changing. Starting with Abenomics more than a decade ago and the more recent initiatives by Japanese stock exchanges, the tangible changes in Japan are attracting investors once again.

As private equity (PE) fund managers and portfolio companies look ahead in 2024, they anticipate a changing exit landscape, hurdles in meeting their investment theses, and ongoing talent obstacles. To meet the inevitable dealmaking challenges (and opportunities), there are 5 PE trends to keep in mind: (1) the ramifications of the U.S.

Seasoned investors know that you cannot predict the future of the markets. But smart private wealth managers know that the key to preserving and growing wealth is to anticipate critical trends that are likely to have a lasting impact. Where trends are concerned, 2024 has a lot brewing around the geopolitical conflicts, the explosion of artificial intelligence, the use of alternative investments as portfolio management tools, and the generational transitions that are coming to the family office.

Sound money is the result when interest rates are above the rate of inflation, a development that is expected to persist in the years ahead. In the meantime, the transition to a higher interest rate environment has no doubt challenged investors, who have endured historical losses in bonds and high volatility in stocks. But make no mistake: This structural shift is the single best economic and financial development in the last 20 years. Looking forward and as shown in this report, investors will benefit from a return to sound money.

The inflationary vortex has been the result of several forces—some unforeseen or unforeseeable—spiraling upward. In this forecast, the focus is on the three catalysts that are expected to impact tomorrow’s inflation outlook: the U.S. labor market, China’s economic and demographic evolution, and the role of the green energy. Between these themes, there are important linkages and investment portfolio positioning to consider.