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2025 stands at a crossroads. In the prior year, nearly half of the world’s population across more than 70 countries participated in national elections, artificial intelligence gained considerable traction in the marketplace, and several banks initiated a synchronized interest rate-cutting cycle. Each of these developments alone creates a complex landscape to navigate. Yet, the situation is further complicated by heightened geopolitical risks and an investment environment brimming with uncertainties.

The past year has ended up being far more resilient to many of the prevailing economic headwinds than we had feared it might be. The shifting consumption patterns, structurally tight labor market, and strong private sector balance sheets with debt that has been locked in at low rates have helped boost consumption and moderate inflationary pressures. As “the year of testing resiliency” came to a close, many may have wondered what to expect in 2025. In this Economic Outlook, Macro Analyst Richard de Chazal sees U.S.

Invoking emergency powers due to the stated “threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs,” President Trump implemented a 10% tariff on imports from China, a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, and—perhaps most surprisingly—a 25% tariff on imports from Canada (except for Canadian energy imports that receive a 10% tariff). These tariffs are sending shockwaves through financial markets both in North America and around the globe as investors reevaluate their portfolio positioning and investment strategies. In the short-term, risks are heightened.

The private equity market is navigating through a period of volatility, driven by inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties. While some regions, such as North America and Asia-Pacific, remain confident in the face of these challenges, others, particularly in Europe, are more cautious.

With the return of the Trump administration, observers expect meaningful changes in political direction and economic and tax policy, but specifics and timing are unknown. Given the degree of uncertainty, investors should remain diversified and focus on both risk and liquidity management. Within private equity, deals that emphasize operational improvement may be better positioned than those focuses on leverage and financial engineering. As the Trump agenda takes shape, a thoughtful balance of caution and opportunism will be key.

By assessing the impact of global warming and the transition to “net zero” on the economy, this paper focuses on three dimensions: the direct physical impact of higher temperatures, the effect of stricter environmental policies, and the boost from greater “green investment” to help mitigate and adapt to climate change. While the physical impact of climate change on the economy increases as temperatures rise, the impact will vary across regions.

Slowing population growth is a global phenomenon. From this research report, learn how to establish a framework by which to understand the dynamics between demographics and economics, along with the likely effect on economic growth and financial markets in the coming decades.

The year 2024 is now in the history books, marking three notable market highlights: a very good year for U.S., the AI gold rush broadening to other industries and sectors, and a surprisingly tough year for U.S. bonds. Looking ahead to what’s next in 2025, Chief Investment Officer Pete Chiappinelli of Ballentine Partners sees thirteen areas for investors to keep in mind—and it starts with the resilient strength of the U.S. economy.