The world's short-term risks are real but appear manageable. The United States, Japan, and Europe will have economic growth capped by the need to repay debt through austerity measures. Emerging market countries generally have better fiscal balances and should not face such austerity measures. And current equity valuations are only pricing in modest growth, which encourages investing.
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The marginal utility of the Fed's tools is decreasing. And relying on that one agency to turn activity from the greatest recession on record does not seem logical. The rest of Washington needs to notice the economic malaise and work together to resolve some of the economic challenges we face.
In addition to significant savings, cloud computing offers on-demand availability, flexibility and scalability. However, cloud computing is not without its risks. Concerns about the security of data storage and applications in the cloud evidence the need for businesses to protect intellectual property, personally identifiable information and other sensitive information.
Recent economic reports have presented relatively good news, but investors seem unwilling to buy in to optimism. Although recent price declines have pushed stocks into bear market territory, stocks remain a good choice vs. cash for long-term investors. In 10 years, stock earnings and valuations are likely to be higher than today.
During the recent market turbulence, corporate earnings results have continued to be strong, despite fears that slower economic growth could cause corrections. But given the unique developments in this market environment, guarded optimism seems in order because current earnings levels do not seem out of line.
Zero economic activity, confidence and effective policymaking are likely to keep market volatility levels elevated as well as pressure risky asset prices in the near future. However, this uncertainty offers the opportunity for investors to rebalance their portfolios by taking advantage of attractive prices for risk assets.
In the wake of SEC regulation, the best course of action for every family with a family office is to identify promptly the most desirable options for bringing their family into compliance by March 30, 2012 and, at the same time, helping it to turn arid compliance dollars into an optimal structure for achieving its long-term value.
The cost of President Obama's proposed $447 billion Jobs Act would be shouldered by wealthy individuals and their families. And while the proposed credits and deductions for businesses and workers are temporary, the revenue raisers would be detrimental by permanently changing the tax law.
Many commercial real estate markets experienced a debt-financed investment boom, similar to housing, before the economic crisis. That trend is about to boomerang as numerous portfolios are up for refinancing. Sizeable refinancing risks loom, particularly in markets with sharp price corrections from 2005-2007, a poor economic outlook, or both.
While high yield spreads are likely to remain volatile until Europe's problems are resolved, the purge of high leveraged credits during 2008 and 2009, coupled with a lack of aggressive re-leveraging of balance sheets thereafter, should limit the severity of the next default wave absent a severe recession or systemic bank failure in Europe.