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The U.S. economy’s coming decade will be shaped by a tug-of-war between artificial intelligence (AI) and demographics-driven deficits. The victor—and its margin of victory—will determine whether economic growth exceeds its disappointing pace since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. By focusing on four key variables and assigning probabilitie...

The private credit asset class has developed and evolved significantly since the Global Financial Crisis. Accounting for $1.6 trillion across a wide range of risk and return profiles, it is cementing its importance and value in investor portfolios. This paper by Cambridge Associates describes why private credit can be attractive in any market, outl...

More than $80 trillion of wealth is expected to be transferred within families over the next two decades. Given the rise in wealth and aging populations globally, the number of family offices has surged to help guide succession planning and the transfer of assets. This brief outlook further highlights the investing trends impacting the path forward...

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is set as a rematch between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Each candidate’s fiscal priorities have already been on display in their first terms and give insight into second-term agendas. This brief outlook by Asset Consulting Group compares their track records and the market impact...

Looking at the economic outlook for the U.S. and across the rest of the globe, Doug McHoney and Alexis Crow at PwC discuss the recession outlook and economic activity of some significant economies, the impact of inflation, central bank policy, including interest rates, commercial real estate and financial stability, currencies and the future of the...

Since 1986, Byron R. Wein gave his views on a number of economic, financial, and political surprises for the coming year. By “surprise,” Byron defined it as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chances of taking place but which he believed had a better than 50% likelihood of happening. Paying homage to Byron’s ann...

For most of the period from the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 through the end of the COVID pandemic in 2022, the Federal Reserve held interest rates near zero. As post-pandemic inflation surged in early 2022, the Federal Reserve began a rapid rate-hike cycle that ended in July 2023 with the Federal Funds Rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. As noted in this In...

The uneven historic GDP growth, deflation, and low corporate productivity have made Japan a tough market for investors. But given the strong performance in 2023, the Japanese market is changing. Starting with Abenomics more than a decade ago and the more recent initiatives by Japanese stock exchanges, the tangible changes in Japan are attracting in...