Unresolved fiscal issues in the United States and the European crisis continue to weigh on the capital markets. However, the author believes the United States should begin to regain economic traction in 2012 and that less developed markets will continue to exhibit relatively strong growth.
European politicians have shown they willing to act aggressively and make tough decisions, being ready to act again if the current rescue package is not enough to curtail the European crisis. However, two key issues still need to be addressed: the lack of economic growth and the mutualization of debt. Time will tell if additional action is needed.
European leaders appear to have outperformed market expectations with their rescue package, but there is still much to do. For example, the adequacy of the bank recapitalizations will be scrutinized and investor sentiment toward Italy and Spain is critical. Governance and growth challenges remain, and longer-term economic growth must be invigorated.
While the economic ramifications of many recent events remain to be seen, this 2011 FOX Fall Forum session examines the potential implications for investors and tactics for protecting portfolios from overexposure to these events.
In this 2011 FOX Fall Forum session, key lobbyists and attorneys shared how the new SEC regulations apply to single family offices and outline options for offices that do not qualify for exemption.
Researchers predicted in late 2009 that large funds could need much more than their typical five-year investment period to invest their capital. Recent projections consider the more active transaction volume and suggest the overhang would more likely require only six years to fully invest.
Difficult financial times are likely to continue, affecting all aspects of the economy and the markets, but the high-quality subsector of the municipal market is not at risk for significant defaults or losses. Debt burdens are relatively light, and annual required payments are often senior to most other budget items.
Cyclical volatility appears to be a defining characteristic of contemporary financial markets. Researchers reflect on the past two decades to identify common factors behind financial crises and caution about where the next bubble might be forming. They also consider life after debt, the fate of the euro, the Asian factor, and what to do now.
The authors have contended since late 2008 that the global deleveraging process is likely to occur in multiple stages and last until 2014 or 2015. Investors need to be aware of this cycle in allocating assets and to focus on capital preservation while resisting the temptation to be swayed by short-term volatility.
Recent moves by the Fed are more symptomatic of the economic malaise and not the cause. As a result, their effect on the markets is fairly unimportant. The equity markets are weak not because of low rates but because of the characterization by the Fed and many market prognosticators that the economy is so much weaker than expected.