Look for new drivers of economic growth in China once the current stimulus package loses steam in two to three years, say analysts for Trusted Sources. They predict an accelerated transfer of rural labor into the cities, driving development of service industries and new investments in all types of urban infrastructure.
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In a new research report from Deutsche Bank, analysts examine the causes and effects of what is likely to become Germany's worst economic downturn of the post-war period. Looking ahead, analysts believe stabilization could set in gradually in the second half of this year, but they do not expect an upturn until 2010.
While British investors are more cautious and pessimistic than they were six months ago, their confidence has not declined as much as might be expected given the severity of market sell-offs. A biannual survey by the Investment Management Association also finds there is a growing group of investors who see the credit crunch as providing good investment opportunities.
European firms have grown into formidable carbon competitors, due to the establishment of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. That makes North American companies the new kids on the block in the global carbon market. This article from Natsource highlights market strategies employed by companies in the early stages of the EU ETS and offers insights for new entrants into the market.
Investing in energy is not without its risks, such as the volatility of commodity prices, funding concerns and regulatory uncertainty. However, Neuberger Berman believes this sector offers promising, long-term investment opportunities due to the move to a lower carbon-energy diet and its reliance on alternative energy sources and conservation.
The effects of the financial crisis and declining economic conditions are being felt across the commercial real estate sector, but property market fundamentals remain relatively sound. That, combined with banks and insurers taking a more cautious approach to real estate lending, has resulted in reduced liquidity and a potential opportunity for investors, says Babson Capital Management.
After the heavy stock market losses of last fall, many regulatory agencies issued restrictions on the short selling of stocks. In this independent analysis for the Alternative Investment Management Association, researchers examine the effect of these restrictions on stock returns in six countries and find no strong evidence that the restrictions had an impact in the United Kingdom or elsewhere.
Too much leverage, poor risk control and blindness to the bubble in the real estate industry have been cited as key factors in the financial crisis. Greycourt, however, points to another potential cause: A collapse of ethical behavior across the financial industry, particularly the loss of any sense of fiduciary responsibility to customers. This white paper explores the role of lost ethics in the current crisis and proposes reforms for the industry.
Global investment in physical infrastructure has been a prime driver of growth in emerging markets, but sustained growth also requires investment in an intangible infrastructure that many emerging nations lack. Credit Suisse identifies five pillars of intangible infrastructure (education, health care, development of the financial system, technological investment and the penetration of business services) and singles out companies with the greatest growth potential within these pillars.
It will take time to get the world economy back on track and the process will be difficult, Barclays Wealth says in its annual outlook. Researchers for Barclays summarize their current macroeconomic views and the implications for asset classes and investment in 2009. They also present their asset allocation recommendations and more specific investment themes, both for the short and medium terms.