The key theme in the second half of 2011 was one of moderate, sub-par economic growth accompanied by modest inflation pressures and no change in the federal funds target rate. Expect more of the same in 2012, with the economy expanding 2.0% for the year and small gains coming from many sectors of the economy.
Investment strategies based purely on expertise in a particular industry or asset class will be insufficient in 2012; developing a broader view is essential to navigate the increasingly correlated environment. This comprehensive overview is intended to help investors refine their perspective across a host of markets, economies, and industries.
The tone heading into 2012 is cautious, and the year is likely to be one of continued rolling crises. But the U.S. economy has come far and is on much firmer footing than it was in 2008. It is our view that, moving through 2012, the U.S. economy will continue on a path of recovery, while we recognize the need for investors to be agile and diligent.
As the European debt crisis has evolved, shifts in sentiment have caused dramatic swings in capital markets; swings not easily characterized by underlying investment fundamentals. This uncertainty has driven Italian bond yields to dangerously elevated levels while the yield on German one-year notes turned negative – hardly signs of a healthy economic environment.
Global wealth has increased to $231 trillion from $195 trillion in 2010, led by growing wealth in South Africa, India, Australia, Chile, and Singapore. This study of world wealth analyzes trends across nations and over time, including the life cycle link between wealth and age, household wealth, and prospects for personal wealth.
Europe has entered a new stage of the debt crisis, as funding stress in the banking sector has risen to extremes. The bond spreads of Belgium, Austria and France have risen to 290, 150 and 155bps respectively, record highs and 5 to 6 standard deviations above norm. The current trends may be unsustainable if left unchecked for more than a few weeks.
The ECB will eventually end up with a more open-ended commitment to buy peripheral European debt. However, it will probably take further turmoil to achieve this. Once the ECB acts as lender of last resort, its balance sheet expands and the quality of its balance sheet deteriorates, leading to a fall in the euro. The weaker euro, in turn, makes QE3 in the U.S. much more likely.
The lack of details behind the European Union's debt plan leads one to wonder if the pendulum swung from "not as bad" to "not as good" as it seems as if execution risk remains high. Given that the risk on dealer balance sheets is now down to levels not seen since 2003, volatility is likely to persist as very little volume is required to move markets.
More than a year since the difficulties began, the markets are again stressing over the possibility of a financial meltdown. Global economic growth is sputtering, and debt levels of peripheral European nations remain dangerously high. Many investors are left wondering if, like Sisyphus, we are doomed to an eternity of frustration.
European Union leaders have at long last reached some agreement on a blueprint to increase the firepower of the European Financial Stability Facility and recapitalize Europe's banks. Although details are still very sketchy, there are grounds for fearing this may only be one more stepping stone on the way to solving the crisis.