Concerns about excess government debt and inflation have increased interest in gold and raised its price. Gold is a commodity that behaves more like a currency, providing no investment return beyond price fluctuation. Gold's high price undermines its protective characteristics, making it more vulnerable to declines as monetary policy normalizes.
At the 2011 FOX Wealth Advisor Forum, a FOX executive reviewed the top trends contained in the current FOX Wealth Trends™ and discussed the findings with two leading wealth advisors who explained how they see the trends manifesting themselves in their practices.
While political upheaval in the region is a legitimate concern for investors, the tumult provides an entry point into what may become an increasingly important market. Economic fundamentals are strong, the regional GDP is improving, and governments are supporting programs and infrastructure to facilitate growth.
U.S. interest rates are unlikely to spike at the end of QE2 because the market has already priced in the completion of Fed purchases, but moves toward fiscal consolidation in Europe are likely to damp economic growth. Policymakers need to proceed cautiously with normalization as they have little ammunition left to battle renewed weakness in aggregate demand.
Developments in the European Monetary Union and the United States have raised new questions about whether political systems can deliver timely solutions to medium-term fiscal imbalances. However, the authors do not believe these imbalances will derail the global recovery, lead to problematic inflation, or prevent companies from making money.
We continue to recommend that investors focus on high-quality general obligation and essential services municipal bonds as the core of their bond portfolios. We also continue to recommend that investors maintain shorter-than-benchmark durations in order to dampen the risks of rising interest rates.
The U.S. economy lacks clear drivers of sustained growth, and there is no "quick fix" for the housing and structurally high unemployment situations. While there is much debate about what the federal government can and cannot do to change this dynamic, it is hard to see any real solution other than a gradual, often volatile recovery pattern over several years.
It may be difficult for consumers to sustain current spending levels given the sticker shock of prices at the pump. Add to the mix a move higher in interest rates, cuts in unemployment benefits and other services, and a restructuring of the Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid system as we know it, and it would seem the downside risks to growth are mounting.
We expect 2011 growth will fall into the lower end of the 3.25% to 3.75% range. Pockets of economic weakness are likely to persist – in unemployment, housing and consumer confidence – but the general economic climate is far healthier than was the case a year ago. Political and geo-political issues, we believe, are the most significant threats to continued recovery.
When the Fed ceases its massive buy program in July, it will be a de facto increase in interest rates. Who is going to step in and fill the void? The conclusion of QE2 is a well known fact, but are the consequences well understood and is this the only market dynamic that will push rates higher?