By virtually any measure, the speculative grade corporate credit market in the United States is performing exceptionally well. In this paper, the Carlyle Group looks at why its predicted collision with the “maturity wall” never materialized.
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Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass' keynote address at the 2012 FOX Fall Forum looked at how to prepare younger generations to succeed in a more global world.Some highlights:
Ben Hunt is portfolio manager of the TIG Procella Fund, a long/short equity hedge fund focused on the political, legal, and regulatory events that influence security prices. In this 2012 FOX Fall Forum session, Hunt examined the impact of European and US monetary and fiscal policy on world markets.Some key takeaways:
The bickering and partisanship in Washington today has both national and international implications. What is motivating this divisiveness and what is the likelihood of notable improvement in the future? Mark Halperin, best-selling author, senior editor at TIME and sought after political commentator, shared his insights on the consequences of the stalemates and divisiveness that seem to dominate politics today at 2012 FOX Fall Forum.Some highlights include:
Many will recall Carmen Reinhart’s and Kenneth Rogoff’s "This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," which had a significant impact on the public discussion over the relationship between debt and economic growth following its publication in 2011. In this article, Rockefeller & Co. Senior Advisor and Economist Matthew D. Gelfand dissects Reinhart and Rogoff's analysis.
The new landscape of energy in the United States — in particular, domestic oil and gas — is changing the national discourse on “energy independence,” influencing our economic recovery, and offering opportunities for discriminating investors. This paper takes a closer look at what might be a new renaissance in oil and gas.
In the fourth quarter 2012 issue of Global Foresight, Rockefeller & Co. focuses on the recent QE3 (quantitative easing) announcement by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the related inflation and market implications, along with a discussion of the current geopolitical overlay. David Harris, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, leads with a history of inflation and discusses the issues associated with quantitative easing as well as the potential implications for the stock and bond markets.
The Fiscal Cliff is a mix of laws and measures that will be triggered automatically if Congress takes no action between now and year-end on reducing U.S. debt. The resulting forced austerity will reinstate policies that will reduce the 2013 budget deficit by $607 billion (roughly 4% of current U.S. GDP). Yet if the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio falls from 73% in 2012 to a sustainable 61% in 10 years, how could this be bad? The answer, as always, lies in the details.
When real estate property values, such as housing, are increasing at such a rapid rate that price levels become unsustainable (typically as a function of replacement value, affordability, rental equivalency rates, etc.), a real estate bubble occurs. The consequences of a real estate bubble consist of an inevitable plummet in values and general economic decline. The financial crisis that started in 2007 was caused by the global bursting of real estate bubbles, particularly in residential real estate, and predominantly in the U.S. and Europe.
Investing on the basis of fundamentals has long been a cornerstone for prudent investors. However, the rash of extreme geopolitical events over the past several years has tried investors' patience, riled portfolios and turned sound expectations on their heads. In this white paper, Greycourt & Co., Inc. examines the factors that have contributed to this dilemma and discusses investment strategies investors can implement to ride out the unusual market conditions in a thoughtful and disciplined manner.