This strategic article forecasts what the global economy will look like in the next 12 months. Key market drivers include an expected disruption of official rates and the very first interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
Two years ago, India was an unhappy member of Morgan Stanley’s “Fragile Five,” a handful of emerging economies judged most vulnerable to tighter Federal Reserve policy and rising global bond yields. Since then, India’s oil bill has dropped, inflation has eased, gold imports have been curtailed, the trade deficit has narrowed -- and in last year’s national elections, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) romped to victory, becoming the first single party to win a majority in the lower house of parliament for 30 years.
This article discusses the outlook for Iran's economyand the implications for equities, fixed income and currencies and oil, following the US, UK, Germany and the UN Security Council's agreement with Iran that the country will freeze its nuclear arms program in return for sanctions relief. Some highlights include:
U.S. equities, now six years into a bull market, have proven their mettle in the face of increased market volatility. While the seemingly imminent Fed rate hike could potentially add another risk to the market’s momentum, the fact that yields are coming off from almost zero still makes equities compelling. At the time of writing, it appears that a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone has been averted for now.
This white paper explores key themes that are expected to influence M&A activity in 2015 across global banking and capital markets, insurance and wealth and asset management. Some themes include:Demand in the US for income generation and real asset strategiesAccess to non-domestic markets and new investors in the USWealth management continues to be an attractive market segment in EuropeIncreased transaction activity in the asset servicing sector in Europe
The imposition of capital controls in Greece follows yet another failure to reach a compromise with the IMF, the ECB and the European Union. Eurozone finance ministers refused to let Greece extend the bailout program and as a result the ECB has halted its emergency loan program for Greece.This commentary discusses the impact a negative vote may have on the Greek debt crisis.
Greece has entered the second episode in its fiscal tragedy. As of July 6th., tensions mounted as Eurozone members debated what to do with the country and its expiring debt. This news comes just a day after the Greeks voted “no” in a bizarre referendum to a bailout that was in fact no longer available to them. This means that such a vote would likely result in Greece defaulting on all of its external debt obligations, as well as its decoupling from the common currency.
Market analysts believe that the current economic expansion might be one of the slowest on record. This commentary takes a look at the pros and cons of the global economy and how its sluggish recovery is changing monetary policy within the central banks, creating a low rate of return on investments, and making the value of higher-risk assets on the international market more attractive to investors.
This detailed analysis offers 9 key insights into the latest global economic trends that include:Weak U.S. growth is expected to be a temporary phenomenonBetter consumer confidences signals stronger growth in JapanAdditional Monetary policy stimulus is driving the Chinese stock marketsStronger credit growth is pointing to a Eurozone upswing
This commentary provides updated data on the state of the global economy in the First Quarter of 2015, including: Recent economic data showed economic growth cooled in the first quarter impacted by a pull back in activity by energy companies, rough winter weather and a strong US dollar. The US economy expanded at a 2.2% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, led by the biggest gain in consumer spending in eight years.