Our neighbor to the south has undergone a transformation of sorts. Mexico is no longer an economic weakling, having become a global player even in the face of the Great Recession and the rise of China, a trade competitor. Mexico’s progress seems not to be garnering the level of investor interest we think it deserves. Why not? Some U.S. Trust clients say they remain distracted by the country’s shaky financial past; others by the drug cartels that operate there today. We believe, though, that after looking more closely at Mexico, many investors will reconsider.
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Our Convergence thought leadership focuses on transformative technologies in the early 21st century. Insights and data shared demonstrate the significant impact these integrated technologies will have on virtually all industries and people worldwide for years to come.
Periods of economic boom and bust have been a fixture in academia. Many credit Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell for formulizing our present day construct of the business cycle in their 1946 book, Measuring Business Cycles. In most teachings, the economy is neatly categorized into trough and peak, expansion and contraction. The dates of such periods are set by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a non-profit, independent institution.
Despite extraordinary measures by global central banks to re-inflate economies, inflation has remained tame. The reasons for subdued inflation have been deleveraging, excess capacity and high unemployment levels.The author believes that:These factors are unlikely to provide the same anti-inflationary pressures going forward and the Federal Reserve will continue to normalize monetary policy as an offset.Investors should be on inflation watch, scrutinizing investment portfolios and reducing exposure to poorly compensated risks.
The July, 2014 Global Economic Update from Asset Consulting Group includes the following:Year-to-date asset class returns for global equities, global fixed income and global real assetsA US and non-US economic overview and forecastReview of current issues and questions that clients are askingReview of current investment opportunities and investment themes
Significant noise has surrounded the dissolution of California Redevelopment Agencies for the past three years. Numerous headlines trumpeted debt service disruptions, lawsuits, cleanup legislation and potential hiccups related to the flow of funds for California Redevelopment debt.Over time, it has become clearer that the potential for credit improvement has trumped the short-term risks of implementing the legislation. Thus far, it would appear that bond holders have benefitted. The local governments have not fared as well.
The confluence of favorable market dynamics, including high corporate cash balances, low interest rates and cooperative capital markets, has created an environment in which corporate management teams and boards of directors can take action to increase value for equity owners.Engagement by shareholders, both private and public, is on the rise and has been met with increasing receptivity. In several recent situations, companies that have engaged in shareholder-recommended activities have been rewarded by markets through higher stock prices.
In this news alert, the author, Perkins Coie, highlights that the SEC is expected to allow two separate exemptive orders being sought from the Family Office Rule with respect to distaff members of a family under the Investment Advisors Act.Because the distaff issue has the potential to affect so many single-family offices, the author believes this is a welcome development, and it is hoped that the SEC will amend the Family Office Rule to make this additional exemptive relief available to every single-family office that has a distaff issue now or in the future.
On June 5, 2014, the European Central Bank crossed an important symbolic line by announcing plans to reduce the policy interest rate into negative territory. Included in this announcement was a host of complementary but nontraditional policy measures, completing the picture of a committee stretching for greater impact.The author believes that:
Research on income equality and social mobility yields compelling conclusions in support of both sides of the debate. For now, regardless of how the research evolves, it is safe to expect the U.S. will enter an environment of higher personal tax rates with further redistribution in the cards, something investors need to consider when weighing the merits of whether to realize or defer income and capital gains.