U.S. stock market activity has been unusually volatile in the last couple days, with the S&P falling roughly 3.2% Friday and 3.9% Monday before rebounding about 2% in early Tuesday trading.Lower-quality credit markets has also suffered while treasuries and high-grade debt have rallied. This market commentary discusses where the global market stands in the face of the Chinese debt crisis.
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On August 19, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which showed the Fed’s concern about China’s economic growth and market turmoil, as well as broader weakening in emerging market economies. The minutes also indicated the Fed’s view that a weakening global economy has revealed some areas of vulnerability in an otherwise fundamentally sound US economy.
It’s a bit early for Halloween, but the equity markets have been scary over the past few weeks and months. Fear is problematic, particularly when it comes to investing in equities.There are currently two macro-driven events affecting the equity markets: the impact of the Greek debt crisis on the Eurozone’s recovery and implications of China’s stock market rout for global growth. This article separates fact from fiction and alleviates some of the fears investors have in the current state of the equity market.
The Export-Import Bank was created in February 1934, as part of the New Deal, to finance trade with the newly established Soviet Union. A second bank was created a month later to finance trade with Cuba and shortly thereafter expanded to include all countries with the exception of the Soviet Union. Congress passed legislation to combine the two banks in 1935. They also granted the unified bank more powers along with more capital.
This article reviews the latest 1.9% devaluation of the Chinese yuan (CNY) reference rate and identifies the three factors that prompted the currency move and the potential long- and short-term implications for Chinese and global asset classes.
While it was not expected that as of July 16, Greece’s creditors would still be attempting to keep the country in the euro with a plan that does not work with the economics of Greece. The reforms that the Greek Parliament accepted on July 16 was poorly designed and far harsher than the vote rejected by the Greek populace 10 days earlier.
This strategic article forecasts what the global economy will look like in the next 12 months. Key market drivers include an expected disruption of official rates and the very first interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
Two years ago, India was an unhappy member of Morgan Stanley’s “Fragile Five,” a handful of emerging economies judged most vulnerable to tighter Federal Reserve policy and rising global bond yields. Since then, India’s oil bill has dropped, inflation has eased, gold imports have been curtailed, the trade deficit has narrowed -- and in last year’s national elections, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) romped to victory, becoming the first single party to win a majority in the lower house of parliament for 30 years.
This article discusses the outlook for Iran's economyand the implications for equities, fixed income and currencies and oil, following the US, UK, Germany and the UN Security Council's agreement with Iran that the country will freeze its nuclear arms program in return for sanctions relief. Some highlights include:
U.S. equities, now six years into a bull market, have proven their mettle in the face of increased market volatility. While the seemingly imminent Fed rate hike could potentially add another risk to the market’s momentum, the fact that yields are coming off from almost zero still makes equities compelling. At the time of writing, it appears that a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone has been averted for now.