Most market updates are preoccupied with shorter-term phenomena and near-term concerns. However, today’s realities are best assessed through a longer-term lens—one based on the goal of generating attractive, or at least sufficient, compounded returns over decades rather than months, quarters, or even years. Great investment opportunities are rare, and an investor’s job is to recognize them when they occur and to avoid putting capital in harm’s way.
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Impact investing has gone mainstream. The Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA), which regulates single-employer and multi-employer private pension plans, now officially agrees. Recent regulatory guidance clarifies that ERISA fiduciaries may now consider ESG, impact, and other factors in their investment decisions.
Looking back over the first half of 2016, the FTSE 100 index increased by 6.7 percent when dividend payments are taken into account. However, this positive performance disguises the substantial equity market volatility seen in February, and again following the Brexit decision in June. The moves in the headline index are again misleading and market outlook is clouded in political maneuvering.
UK’s vote to leave the EU has escorted in what could be a long period of uncertainty and volatility in the market. There is also skepticism about the recent, liquidity-driven bounce in risky assets. Overall, global equities and bonds should be range bound during the remainder of 2016, although both are at the higher end of their prospective ranges. Volatility will persist due to global uncertainty, and there will most likely be a shift toward fiscal stimulus.
The 'leave' campaign, a victory for the pro-Brexit voters, was quite a surprise to markets and the world. The United Kingdom, based on a referendum of all eligible citizens, voted to leave the European Union (EU) and became the first country to do so. The effects of the referendum vote are already being felt in the political spectrum and the financial markets. However, the structural changes will take some time. Financial markets, on the other hand, have not and will not take years to digest this revolution.
Bond markets globally were off to a slow start at the beginning of the quarter, but began to drive higher as the Brexit vote approached and eventually jumped on the result as investors sought out safe-haven assets. The Barclays Universal Bond Index gained 2.53 percent in the second quarter; the gauge has advanced 5.68 percent so far this year through June. Interestingly, domestic and some international equity markets have largely recovered from their post-Brexit lows, but fixed income markets have remained at elevated levels as investors stay wary of the evolving economic landscape.
There were two distinct periods during the quarter divided by sentiment and performance. The start of the year through February 11 was a “risk-off” period of negative sentiment and sharp declines across asset classes and countries. Many assets had double-digit declines during the first half of the quarter. Sentiment shifted abruptly and most markets rallied starting February 12. Many major indices erased prior losses to post gains for the quarter.
Prior to the Brexit vote on June 23, financial markets were relatively strong. The S&P 500 index was trading just under its all-time high and the British pound was at the highest level of the year. The day after the vote, markets reacted sharply with risk-assets dropping and safe haven assets rising. Oil, the S&P 500, and the FTSE Eurotop 100 fell 5 percent, 4 percent, and 6 percent respectively. Gold gained 4 percent. The sell-off lasted two days and equities regained much of the two-day declines by month-end.
The first quarter may be an accurate forecast of the performance of risk assets for the entire year, which is likely to be one of a flat average and a wide range of individual monthly returns. After the initial five-week decline in risk asset prices, global stocks reversed their initial losses, high-yield bonds spreads tightened, and the CRB Commodities Index finished higher by the end of the quarter than at the beginning of the quarter. The latest pattern in risk assets is unstable, similar to previous market tumbles and rebounds.
No matter how many times an entrepreneur has started a business, challenges abound. The marketplace is fickle in picking winners and losers, and any ego boost from other successes must be checked at the door of the new venture. But the challenges doesn’t stop many entrepreneurs from taking on multiple startup experiences. That’s increasingly true within the millennial generation, where the entrepreneurial lifestyle offers an excitement that’s hard to find elsewhere. For millennials, they know the risks, and they’re not afraid of them.