Amidst headwinds such as economic weakness in China and emerging markets, financial and stock market volatility, falling oil prices and a stronger dollar, the U.S. economy weakened to end 2015. Despite these impediments to growth, several economic indicators were encouraging. During the 4th Quarter 2015, leading indices showed that consumer confidence increased, the labor market strengthened, and the unemployment rate ended at a year low at 5.0 percent.
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Most market updates are preoccupied with shorter-term phenomena and near-term concerns. However, today’s realities are best assessed through a longer-term lens—one based on the goal of generating attractive, or at least sufficient, compounded returns over decades rather than months, quarters, or even years. Great investment opportunities are rare, and an investor’s job is to recognize them when they occur and to avoid putting capital in harm’s way.
The first quarter may be an accurate forecast of the performance of risk assets for the entire year, which is likely to be one of a flat average and a wide range of individual monthly returns. After the initial five-week decline in risk asset prices, global stocks reversed their initial losses, high-yield bonds spreads tightened, and the CRB Commodities Index finished higher by the end of the quarter than at the beginning of the quarter. The latest pattern in risk assets is unstable, similar to previous market tumbles and rebounds.
No matter how many times an entrepreneur has started a business, challenges abound. The marketplace is fickle in picking winners and losers, and any ego boost from other successes must be checked at the door of the new venture. But the challenges doesn’t stop many entrepreneurs from taking on multiple startup experiences. That’s increasingly true within the millennial generation, where the entrepreneurial lifestyle offers an excitement that’s hard to find elsewhere. For millennials, they know the risks, and they’re not afraid of them.
With an estimated $30 trillion plus transitioning to millennials over the next couple of decades, millennials will most certainly drive change in the financial industry. Many also see impact investing as a meaningful way to engage their capital and to achieve social and environmental impact. Ten impact investors from Europe and North America share their impact investing journeys and provide specific examples of what kind of collaboration they would value.
Unlike prior recessions and monetary responses, the attempt at economic recovery following 2008 was decidedly different. Through the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy (and strong guidance that rates would stay low for an extended period of time), the Federal Reserve forced investors out of low risk assets and into risky assets. The extreme low interest rate environment created many significant, unintended consequences for both U.S. and global markets, including the impact on investor risk tolerance.
After months of fierce debate and a policymaking hiatus, the United Kingdom (UK) electorate has voted in favour of leaving the European Union (EU). While the broad direction is set, companies will still face considerable uncertainty until the UK’s exit strategy is defined and trade negotiations (including the trans-border movement of people) with the EU and other countries are completed.
What has been called a “soft revolution” in the UK may also be thought of as the “revenge of the 99%.” The final implications of the decision to leave the EU will not unfold for many years, but some of the initial economic and market impacts are becoming evident. Interestingly, one “winner” in this scenario may be the U.S. consumer. A stronger dollar generally reduces the cost of imports and reduces the Fed’s impetus to raise interest rates. On the broader spectrum, Brexit should not interrupt domestic consumer spending or the recovery in the U.S.
The outcome of the United Kingdom’s referendum to leave the European Union has stunned forecasters and market participants. The market responded in dramatic fashion to the news, triggering economic repercussions where the Euro fell against the U.S. Dollar from 2 percent to 8.5 percent. Meanwhile, safe haven bond markets rallied up to 25 basis points. As heightened risk premiums filter into global markets, we advise investors to focus on long-term perspective of how events may play out and how markets and portfolios may respond.
NEPC's Christopher Levell, ASA, CFA, CAIA, Partner, hosted a webinar discussion on Wednesday, June 29, 2016 on the effects of the United Kingdom’s referendum to leave the European Union. The UK’s vote is an unprecedented event that has major implications for global markets both in the short and long term.