Resource Search

What has been called a “soft revolution” in the UK may also be thought of as the “revenge of the 99%.” The final implications of the decision to leave the EU will not unfold for many years, but some of the initial economic and market impacts are becoming evident. Interestingly, one “winner” in this scenario may be the U.S. consumer. A stronger dollar generally reduces the cost of imports and reduces the Fed’s impetus to raise interest rates. On the broader spectrum, Brexit should not interrupt domestic consumer spending or the recovery in the U.S.

The outcome of the United Kingdom’s referendum to leave the European Union has stunned forecasters and market participants. The market responded in dramatic fashion to the news, triggering economic repercussions where the Euro fell against the U.S. Dollar from 2 percent to 8.5 percent. Meanwhile, safe haven bond markets rallied up to 25 basis points. As heightened risk premiums filter into global markets, we advise investors to focus on long-term perspective of how events may play out and how markets and portfolios may respond.

NEPC's Christopher Levell, ASA, CFA, CAIA, Partner, hosted a webinar discussion on Wednesday, June 29, 2016 on the effects of the United Kingdom’s referendum to leave the European Union. The UK’s vote is an unprecedented event that has major implications for global markets both in the short and long term.

In a historic referendum, Great Britain voted to leave the European Union, and the “Brexit” impact on the global markets was immediate—evidenced by market movements where the British Pound, the Euro, European equities, and UK equities were hit hardest. The next steps for Brexit will take some time, and political risks will increase uncertainty, which will dampen UK and European growth prospects. But what does “Brexit” mean for the broad capital markets?

Atlantic Trust CIO David L. Donabedian, CFA, and Head of Fixed Income Gary E. Pzegeo, CFA, hosted a live webinar in which they analyzed fallout from the Brexit vote and assessed:The economic outlook in Europe and the U.S.The impact on equity and credit market fundamentalsWhat central banks will doWhether other nations will leave the EUThe Portfolio implications

The United Kingdom’s “Brexit” vote to leave the European Union (EU) triggered a heightened level of market volatility that had several implications for stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. The vote will lead to long-lasting negotiations between the British government and the EU, and periods of geopolitical, economic and global financial-market uncertainty in the coming months and years as a result. Some investors may be wondering, “what now” following the buildup and global financial market disappointment with the Brexit vote.

Impact investing has gone mainstream. The Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA), which regulates single-employer and multi-employer private pension plans, now officially agrees. Recent regulatory guidance clarifies that ERISA fiduciaries may now consider ESG, impact, and other factors in their investment decisions.

Looking back over the first half of 2016, the FTSE 100 index increased by 6.7 percent when dividend payments are taken into account. However, this positive performance disguises the substantial equity market volatility seen in February, and again following the Brexit decision in June. The moves in the headline index are again misleading and market outlook is clouded in political maneuvering.

UK’s vote to leave the EU has escorted in what could be a long period of uncertainty and volatility in the market. There is also skepticism about the recent, liquidity-driven bounce in risky assets. Overall, global equities and bonds should be range bound during the remainder of 2016, although both are at the higher end of their prospective ranges. Volatility will persist due to global uncertainty, and there will most likely be a shift toward fiscal stimulus.

The 'leave' campaign, a victory for the pro-Brexit voters, was quite a surprise to markets and the world. The United Kingdom, based on a referendum of all eligible citizens, voted to leave the European Union (EU) and became the first country to do so. The effects of the referendum vote are already being felt in the political spectrum and the financial markets. However, the structural changes will take some time. Financial markets, on the other hand, have not and will not take years to digest this revolution.