Investment Update, February 2016

During uncertain times, it is easy to get caught up in the latest headlines proclaiming a possible U.S. recession. Although many variables such as growth in hourly earnings or high yield spreads over Treasury bonds have been shown to “predict” recessions in advance, the slope of the yield curve remains a powerful indicator of what lies ahead for the U.S. economy. Using history as a guide and active monitoring of leading indicators (including what the yield curve is signaling), the analysis shows the U.S. economy will grow at a modest but uneven pace.