This article addresses the nature and causes of low volatility, what developments might upset market equilibrium, what history tells us about this phenomenon, and how investors might prepare for periods of greater fluctuation in asset values.
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With broad equity markets performing exceptionally well over the last five years, there has been much debate over the benefits of active versus passive investment strategies. As strong proponents of fundamental investing, we have long believed that well-executed, actively managed strategies outperform passive index-based approaches over full market cycles. But within the active management camp, there remains significant discussion over how to best deliver that outperformance.
With bonds providing so little yield in today's market, should life insurance be viewed as an investment? Whether or not you view insurance as an "asset class," permanent life insurance is definitely an asset, and it can help investors achieve their long-term financial goals. Thoughtful coordination of insurance and investments can provide more combined benefits than either asset can deliver on its own. And since having a life insurance policy can affect a client's willingness to take risk, it should be part of the investment conversation.
We believe recent volatility in high yield bonds is largely the result of fund flows – not fundamentals or widespread credit concerns. It is an example of inefficiency in the high yield market, as technicals are important for the short-term but fundamentals matter in the end.
Rising rates can spook bond investors, since rates and bond values are inversely related. As a result, investors sometimes sell following a sharp price decline, hoping to reinvest as the market recovers, effectively “selling low.”
Unlike corporations, municipalities are perpetual entities that cannot be liquidated through bankruptcy. Thus, Chapter 9 of the Bankruptcy Code is dedicated to the unique circumstances of municipalities. This report explains the key components of Chapter 9, identifies entities eligible to file, reviews state actions to deter future filings by local municipalities and discusses recent municipal bankruptcy filings. Analysis of the last three periods of municipal market volatility suggests that investors that stay the course may benefit from their patience.
In prior rising rate environments, various parts of the municipal yield curve reacted differently based on economic conditions and the pace and scale of Fed activity. An analysis of historical changes in monetary policy shows that in the past three rising rate environments, a hypothetical investor who stayed the course through the tightening cycle –regardless of their position on the yield curve – may have experienced positive total returns, the notion that “rising rates are bad for bond investors” notwithstanding.
The process to execute and close deals continues to challenge investors flush with cash. The trend in deal volume over the last several quarters brings this to light. Nevertheless, the M&A community continues to churn with activity as buyers and sellers try to create mutually beneficial outcomes. Whether you are a buyer or seller, the featured ideas will provide you with guidance on how to better execute your next deal.
Despite continued geopolitical instability and the media’s newfound focus on jihadist terror, equities rallied during the month on optimism that monetary policies among major central banks will continue to be quite supportive. U.S. corporate earnings for the second quarter of 2014 also came in stronger than expected, with the S&P 500 earnings growth rate accelerating to over 8% year-on-year. Developments outside the U.S. were less encouraging.
The fixed income environment is changing, and as a result we believe opportunistic fixed income strategies with the flexibility to go anywhere are better suited to today’s market realities than traditional, duration-heavy core holdings. But because these strategies come in different shapes and sizes, we think it is important for investors to drill down into what they’re actually investing in and understand both the what, and the how of investing in this new fixed income landscape.