Looking back on 2015, it was a disappointing year for investors with returns that were flat to negative, reflecting global market pressures that demand attention in 2016. The new year begins with a tricky liftoff around lowered market expectations and slightly more conservative positioning. Declines in corporate earnings, global growth, oil prices, and key economic metrics struck as reasons for increased caution (even as stocks rebounded in the fourth quarter).
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There is nothing particularly magical about the start of a new calendar year, but it is a time to reassess the global economy and markets in search of investment opportunities. At the start of 2016 the outlook shows low recession and bear market risks, the U.S. poised to outperform but an inflection point is nearing. The opponents look equally strong, however, and tug-of-wars eventually come to an end. Until then, the investment outlook is one of relative opportunity and walking the tight line of balancing return opportunities and risks.
The economic outlook may be better than many think, with U.S. growth in 2016 likely remaining well above the long-term trend of 1.5 percent. The economy is expected to grow near 2.6 percent, with the household sector and residential investment being the two primary drivers. The recent Washington D.C. policymaker agreement, which resulted in a lifting of the debt ceiling, should add 0.2 percentage points to overall economic activity in 2016.
The real estate industry is going through an unprecedented phase of institutionalization as it formalizes processes, outsources noncore activities and takes proactive steps to managing increased regulatory oversight. This trends report for the coming New Year provides some surprising changes in the real estate private equity market. Some of the highlights include:· Fundraising is up and real estate investors are seeing opportunities in markets across the globe, including ones that have seen slowdown
Geopolitics aside, economic data outside the United States displayed modest improvement based on ‘flash’ purchasing manager surveys for Europe and Japan, which pointed to stronger activity, Quantitative easing (QE) by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) have supported both economies, although recent signs of soft inflation may indicate both central banks should inject additional stimulus. This latest global economic commentary discusses a number of updates in equity, commodity and fixed income markets worldwide.
It is a common understanding that when investing in international assets, there are two sources of risk, first, the volatility that comes from the underlying asset itself (typically equities or bonds) and second, the volatility of the currency in which the international asset is denominated versus the base currency of the portfolio.
In March 2014, the Chinese Government announced the launch of its National New Urbanization Plan. The plan will transform China and will present opportunities in almost every sector—health care, entertainment, construction, energy, urban planning and many others. The New Urbanization Plan is a key part of the Government’s economic strategy, which seeks to rebalance the economy away from reliance on investment and exports and toward growth led by consumer spending.
Industrial robots have been in use for more than 50 years. Today, a convergence of technological advancements, with economic and demographic trends, is leading to the adoption of robotics far beyond automotive assembly to include a wide variety of industries. Many governments have made Robotic and Autonomous Systems (RAS) a strategic initiative for economic growth.
With a significant number of private equity groups (PEGs) working to succeed in this market, it has become increasingly difficult to identify targets poised for significant growth based on financial analysis alone.
Debt continues to grow. In U.S.-dollar terms the debt of states, corporates and private households has increased by roughly 50 percent since 2007. This rise has led to concerns about a renewed debt crisis. A closer look reveals that both the growth and composition of debt differs between regions. Also, countries vary in their ability to take on and service debt. Should these be areas of concern?