With the U.S. election just months away, many are curious what the future holds for the economy and how new political leadership will impact their portfolios. Adding to the uncertainty is the fallout from Brexit and the looming changes that are sure to impact the European Union and beyond. In his mid-year economic forecast, FOX member and Atlantic Trust’s David Donabedian shared his projections on the critical drivers affecting investments and the ramifications expected from changes in the political landscape, both in the U.S. and abroad.
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For the fourth consecutive quarter, financial markets suffered a bout of sudden and dramatic volatility. This time it was the Brexit vote which triggered negative market reaction. After the UK's surprising election results were announced on June 24, global equity markets sold off, the British Pound fell to a 30-year low, and worries re-emerged over the health of various European banks and the EU itself. Financial markets quickly absorbed the surprise outcome of the U.K.
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The United Kingdom's Brexit vote was shocking but not surprising. Polling prior to the vote consistently showed a close contest, with "Leave" often in the lead. The Brexit outcome created uncertainty for the financial outlook and markets. Some broad themes have emerged since the vote and may carry over to other markets. Learn more about what investors need to know on the impacts of Brexit.
At times of high uncertainty, the dissemination of information can create more confusion than clarity. The downside of today’s media model has been on prominent display in the days since voters in the United Kingdom cast their Brexit vote, expressing a wish to depart the European Union. In the aftermath, analysts began to project a wide range of separations occurring within regions and countries. It was as if the map of Europe were heading back to its standing of 400 years ago.
On a timely visit to London following the United Kingdom's vote to exit the European Union, the Pitcairn team had the opportunity to interview Wigmore Association partner, Marc Hendriks, Chief Investment Officer of Sandaire Investment Officer about what Brexit could mean to global investors. Marc provided thoughts on the following:
The UK has voted to leave the European Union after 40 years of membership, defying the expectations of most market participants and ignoring the warnings from the International Monetary Fund and other leading economists regarding the negative impacts on trade. Market reaction was swift, with the pound falling to a 30-year lows and a “risk-off” trade rippling across the global markets. While the UK leave vote (“Brexit”) has generated volatility and a flight to safety trade in the short term, it has not altered our longer term outlook on global markets.
The United Kingdom’s (UK) voluntary exit from the European Union (EU) is unprecedented—and with it comes more questions than answers about how it will affect business entities in the UK and beyond. Economists anticipate at least several years of uncertainty, which typically does not bode well for financial markets. U.S. companies that sell to, buy from, or operate in the UK or EU, or are engaged in their financial or stock markets, are likely to experience some financial effects—but the nature and extent of those effects is still to be determined.
In a historic referendum, 51.9 percent of voters in the United Kingdom (UK) elected to leave the European Union (EU), catching global markets off guard. Reaction has been significant, with large currency moves, falling yields on perceived safe-haven government bonds, and large sell-offs in the equity markets. Within a day of the vote to leave the EU, the British pound sterling dropped over 6 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.56 percent, and global equities plunged 3 to 9 percent. The spillover effect to the U.S. economy will be minimal, but earnings of U.S.
Britons voted to exit the European Union on June 23, marking the first time any country has left since its formation. The political consequences for Britain’s Prime Minister were swift, and people around the globe reacted with shock and confusion. The economic and investment impact of this decision led to a rising U.S. dollar and falling GDP growth estimates, which will put downward pressure on S&P revenue growth in an environment where sales, margins and corporate profits are already challenged.