The broadest index of global stock market performance (MSCI ACWI) has gone more than 400 days without a pullback of 5% or more, the longest such streak in 30 years. It is no surprise, then, that experienced investors are riding the rally with one foot on the gas and a hand on the parking brake. The only thing that can be said with certainty is this streak will end, but the question is when. The key to surviving the next downturn is proper mental preparation.
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Moving into 2018 there is a need to prepare for a subtly changing investment environment. It is time for a comprehensive reality check, and the Ten Themes for 2018 can help you understand the opportunities and risks ahead. We think that we will see another year of positive, if generally rather lower, investment returns. Beginning with theme number 1—forewarned is forearmed—we believe that you should be prepared, at the very least, for higher levels of volatility.
Investors focus on the yield curve with good reason—an inverted curve has historically led to recession and eventual stock market losses. However, these stock market declines take time to materialize, suggesting that an inverted yield curve is less a “predictor” of stock market declines than a challenge to economic functioning. The Fed is cognizant of this history and, absent an upsurge in inflation that forces its hand, will seek to avoid significant yield curve flattening.
Low inflation, subdued global growth, and historically elevated stock valuations are the realities we believe your investment portfolios face over the next five years. Investors can position their portfolios for the long-term with these six key themes in mind: valuation superstructure, entrenched growth, stuckflation, monetary godot, populist catharsis, and regulation in limelight.
Congress on December 20, 2017 gave final approval to the House and Senate conference committee agreement on tax reform legislation (HR 1 or the Act).
For a majority of impact investors, impact investing means seeking a general or specific environmental, social, or governance outcome, in addition to a financial return, from their investments.
Portfolio companies of private equity and venture capital funds often provide equity-based compensation to employees.
Equity markets around the globe advanced into new high territory in October, with the S&P 500 posting a total return of 16.9% YTD. Global fundamentals remain supportive with many indicators signaling the potential for further gains. While volatility has been notably absent from markets this year, and as each dip seems to bring a fresh wave of buyers, in life it is never a good idea to be complacent. Extended periods of economic growth and rising markets can obscure underlying structural imbalances which often become strikingly obvious when a “relief valve” is triggered.
New discoveries and venture capital investments in the bioscience industry are occurring at a breathtaking pace and have led to the emergence of “personalized medicine” which recognizes the need for tailored treatments. From genome sequencing to CAR T-Cell therapy, scientific medical discoveries are having a significant impact on the human condition and their influence will continue to grow in the future.
Impact investments can be made in all corners of the world, in frontier and emerging markets, developed economies and our local neighborhoods. When successfully implemented, impact investing can potentially produce a sustainable pool of capital that can work for generations, as well as help align financial capital with your passions, beliefs and objectives.