Despite an improved outlook, it is possible that the U.S. political authority will trigger a six-month review period for exiting the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) sometime during the next 90 days. At stake is more than $1 trillion in cross-border trade and more than 14 million jobs across three economies. While Mexico has the largest exposure to such an event—in the case of a hasty exit, its economy could contract 2.9 percent in 2019—both the United States and Canada have significant direct and indirect exposure to such a radical shift.
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Private Markets Insights: 2018 Outlook
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2017 failed to produce any break in the private markets trends observed in 2016.
Investment Brief: Trump and Tariffs
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Trump kicked of the month of March by announcing import tariffs of 10% on aluminum and 25% on steel. The U.S. financial markets, as expected, reacted negatively to the initial announcement with the Dow Jones Index falling over 400 points and major aluminum and steel users such as Ford and GM being particularly hard hit. Canada and the EU, the two largest exporters of steel to the United States, came out strongly against the tariffs, with the EU proposing retaliatory actions on certain U.S. goods in response. The current developments are unlikely to lead to a trade war.
2018 Outlook: An Object in Motion
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U.S. economic momentum, already positive, will increase further due to the tax package. Interest rates are likely to rise throughout the year posing a headwind for longer duration core bonds. Equity valuations are underpinned by the interest rate and macro environment, but continued increases would become more concerning if inflation makes a comeback. Europe and Japan are also gaining momentum and are earlier in their economic cycles, contributing to the global synchronized growth. Individual risks are moderate, but collectively could pose a challenge, particularly in the second half.
Bitcoin: The Digital Gold Rush
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Bitcoin looks here to stay, but will it be a niche or something more? The analogy to gold is useful, but with notable differences.
In 2017, three central banks within the G-7 tightened monetary policy through the traditional method of interest rate hikes. The U.S. Federal Reserve, hiking three times, began “quantitative tightening” through the reduction of its balance sheet. Other G-7 central banks expanded their balance sheets through asset purchases. Will 2018 see convergence in G-7 policies? Further, what does this hold for the path of U.S. interest rates and more importantly its impact on the global macroeconomic environment? Mr.
Automation is not a new phenomenon, and fears about its disruption of the workplace and effects on employment date back centuries. But rapid recent advances in automation technologies, including artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and robotics are now raising these fears anew. We will discuss some of the questions most often raised in the public debate: Will there be enough work in the future to maintain full employment, and if so what will that work be? Which occupations will thrive, and which ones will wither?
The Next Wave of Innovation
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The next generation of venture capitalists come from more diverse backgrounds, and are known for investing early in founders making waves and disrupting industries. In this session, you’ll meet some of the most sought after VCs in early stage investing and the founders they have funded. We will highlight investors and entrepreneurs in artificial intelligence, health science and other areas.Panelists:Sara Deshpande, Partner, Maven VenturesTammy Sun, CEO, CARROT
The panel will explore the latest thoughts on the use of less correlated investments in portfolio construction. As correlations are notoriously unstable, what strategies may be able to provide less correlation to U.S. equity markets, without giving up too much upside in a long-lasting U.S. equity rally?Panelists:Incorporating Options: Robert Gordon, President, Twenty-First Securities Corporation
The increasingly unforgiving nature of public equity markets, coupled with the continued evolution and growth of private investment markets, is making it easier for more companies to stay private. As a result, investors seeking to capture the full range of investment opportunities across the U.S. economy have little choice but to increasingly pursue private investments. This session delves further into this trend and discusses how investors with the ability to accept illiquidity may reap the benefits for their portfolios.