When it comes to the family, dynamics are changing. There is no longer one dominant family form in the U.S., according to Pew research. Parents are waiting longer to have children, and many millennials are living at home or taking a less direct route to adulthood. These shifts will continue in 2019 and shape how affluent families tackle interpersonal issues. As wealthy families move forward, there are three trends they should keep a close eye on and discuss with their family office or other advisors.
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As higher interest rates, trade disputes, and slowing global growth cast a chill over markets, the US economy is completing a shift from a period of extended growth to the late stage of an economic cycle. While we do not know when exactly winter will arrive for the economy and markets, we are advising investors to brace for harsher climes. At the same time, we also encourage them to take advantage of an unseasonable mild stretch.
While the Treasury curve has continued to exhibit a flattening trend, taking it closer to an inversion, the municipal curve has marched to a different beat, even steepening slightly in 2018. The difference is apparent, especially when using a tax adjusted municipal curve to get a taxable equivalent. In fact, the relative slope between Treasuries and municipal debt is hovering around a record high, leading us to believe that municipal bonds are an attractive option for taxable investors relative to other fixed-income opportunities.
With 2018 coming to a close, investors are setting their sights on the year ahead. Will the record long bull market in the U.S. weather the storm of recent volatility? How will government actions affect the state of this late-stage expansion? Jason Pride, Chief Investment Officer – Private Client at Glenmede shared his 2019 themes alongside perspectives on the economy and financial markets and discussed his views as to how investors should position their portfolios entering into the new year.
The volatility in the markets at the end of 2018 raised concerns about the outlook for 2019. Investors may have worried that sources of support were “beyond the peaks”—peak liquidity and then, probably, peak growth in GDP and corporate earnings.
Women continue to make great strides in wealth. However, a general theme emerges across research revealing women are still restricted by their own lack of confidence in terms of financial knowledge and the approach to investments, risk, and their role in a business. Given that most women will have sole responsibility for their wealth at some point in their lives, it is critical for women to take ownership of their wealth.
Investments into qualified Opportunity Zone Funds offer attractive tax benefits, while catalyzing capital inflows into economically distressed communities. However, prudence is necessary in evaluating these investment opportunities as they come to market.
Studies have shown that investors who engage in market timing must achieve a minimum of 70% accuracy in predicting market moves. Even the best “market gurus” who engage in market timing fell far below that level. So what does work for investors who want to avoid losing money during an equity market downturn?
The Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives, and the Republicans added to their majority in the Senate. The prospect of a divided Congress, especially in the current hyper-partisan era, is likely to mean very little new legislation enacted in the next two years. Legislative gridlock is generally considered a positive for markets, since it reduces uncertainty. Nonetheless, the Trump administration’s unconventional approach to governing is likely to keep things interesting.
Investors may be feeling a bit skittish as talk has shifted to rising rates, slowing economic growth, and growing geopolitical risks. A neutral allocation to equities still seems appropriate for 2019, but the risks are rising. A key question going forward is whether the recent volatility marks an intermission of the nearly decade-long bull market or if it represents a turning point. We think the former, but the second act may be far shorter than the first.