Since the election, investors have focused on the positive aspects of President Trump’s surprising electoral victory and the end of U.S. legislative gridlock. There will likely be times in the year ahead when the more worrisome, controversial initiatives pushed by the Trump administration will rattle investor confidence—at which point we would view U.S. equities as attractive. Although equity valuations are elevated in the U.S.
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The Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s unexpected 2016 election victory have kicked off a wave of pro-nationalist sentiment across the globe. With several key Eurozone countries facing elections in 2017, leading economists and investors envision a possible reshuffling (and even a potential demise) of the European Union. Volatility typically accompanies political transitions, and investors should review their objectives and adjust accordingly. Remember that what goes down often comes back up—eventually.
Wealth does not build itself, but it can be built, nurtured and preserved—not just for you and your generation, but for generations to come. In an unprecedented study into the insights of wealthy families, clear evidence of new wealth management strategies has emerged. There are signs of more inclusive decision-making within the family. Many are looking beyond the balance sheets as they redefine what success means to them. And, importantly, they’re relying more and more on their business acumen to adopt a systematic approach to wealth management.
Fund groups face disruptive developments, as advances in financial technology, often called fintech, continue at an ever more rapid pace. Even as new efficiencies and opportunities blossom, regulators have pushed financial firms to recognize the dangers of technological failures. To prepare for the changes ushered in by fintech, it is important for fund boards, investment managers and separate account advisers to have a deep understanding of the issues and risks surrounding Fintech developments.
Legal developments in digital currencies, including bitcoin, emerge almost on a daily basis across the global landscape. While in Argentina virtual currencies are not legal tender under the country’s National Constitution, in Croatia there are informal statements by the Croatian National Bank that look favorably on the legality of bitcoin. In Estonia, bitcoin income is treated as capital gains, and in Australia, virtual currency transactions are subject to goods and services taxes.
Assuming funds of funds offer nothing in return—or that you get less than you pay for—is a mistake for a surprisingly broad group of investors. That perspective becomes clearer when taking a closer review of the reason investment committees focus their attention on high-level strategic thinking and asset allocation, rather than on picking individual stocks. Similarly, there is a case to be made for investors to use fund of funds, rather than directly selecting individual private equity firms from the thousands of choices available.
After falling from over $100 a barrel to its low point of $26 in February 2016, prices for crude oil have now risen to about $50 a barrel. While that’s nearly a 100 percent increase, oil is still comparatively cheap. But the current state of crude oil also necessitates a look at other investments that move with the price of oil—directly or indirectly. Has the roller coaster of oil’s descent and its subsequent climb out of the abyss hit a plateau?
Traditional economic theory teaches that humans will make rational decisions when presented with all the facts and appropriate alternatives.
The optimism and market strength seen in 2016 continued into the first quarter of this year with equity markets showing notable advances. International stocks showed their promise in the first three months of the year as emerging markets rallied 11.45 percent and developed international markets gained 7.39 percent. U.S. stocks were still in the race as the S&P 500 Index gained 6.07 percent during the first quarter of 2017.
With President Trump often communicating policy via Twitter, investors are once again finding messaging can be costly—one mere tweet from Trump blasting the pricing of an F-35 fighter jet caused Lockheed Martin to shed $2 billion of market value within minutes. Since the likely market outcome usually lies somewhere in between extreme bullish and bearish views, this edition of Global Foresight focuses on the prospects of President Trump’s legislative agenda and market valuations, as well as highlights some of the important developments outside of the U.S.