Investors now have more than $3 trillion invested in hedge funds, up from $1 trillion in 2005. This steep increase in assets under management means the hedge fund industry confronts a more scrupulous regulatory environment, heightened investor demands for transparency and tighter standards for all aspects of fund governance, like performance reporting and offshore fund structuring.
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Women have become financial powerhouses and have taken on an increasing role in managing wealth to the tune of $11.2 trillion. Some estimate that by 2030, women will control as much as two-thirds of the nation’s wealth. This change makes one thing clear—whether women are wealth creators, inheritors, or owners through marriage, they need to take responsibility for preserving, enhancing, and ultimately, transferring their assets.
Thank goodness the U.S. election is over so we can all stop slinging arrows at each other and get on with our lives for at least the next 18 months. America is divided, where roughly half the voters wanted him and the other half wanted her. America got him. So what does that mean if you are a private markets investor, especially if you are an impact/cleantech investor?
The U.S. president-elect’s victory and the Italian’s declination of reform in the waning months of 2016 was a final crescendo for a central theme of 2016, populism. Additionally, stresses in regions like the Middle East and East Asia were accompanied by growing inequality and unrest, while concerns over the refugee crisis and a snowballing income gap were key drivers in the result of the Brexit. Despite news headlines on these topics injecting volatility into the markets this year, the U.S. equity markets have remained surprisingly resilient.
Governments and individuals now have to deliver on the promises that they have made. In other words, the rhetoric of last year has to be translated into policy and investment reality. Investors may also have to get used to a world characterized not only by divergence, but also by a continued threat of disruption. We are living in a complex world but investors should not assume that events are so unpredictable as to be impossible to prepare for. Looking at the economic and political landscape, 10 key investment themes emerge for 2017.
Looking in the rear view mirror on the global markets—including the resurgence of populism, the Fed’s annual rate migration, and portfolio positioning—another up year is in the books for U.S. equities, with 2016 marking the eighth consecutive calendar year to have a positive total return on the S&P 500 Index. This time around the U.S. large capitalization index posted a resilient 11.95 percent total return with 2.41 percent coming from dividends and 9.5 percent from price appreciation.
President Trump was inaugurated into office last week amid rallies and protests lining the streets that continued into the weekend. In his first few days in office, Trump has already put forth executive orders to freeze new agency regulations, withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. These actions will have strong effects on production and trade for the U.S. on a worldwide scale. While the domestic growth forecast may be notably improving, investors are on standby to determine which campaign assurances will become reality.
After a sharp stock market rally that ensued immediately after Trump’s come-from behind victory, financial markets have moderated as the realities of governing in the real world have begun to sink in. Investors were initially enthused by Trump’s plans to cut corporate and personal income taxes, reduce business regulations, implement a $1 trillion infrastructure program, and negotiate trade deals more favorable to the United States. While supportive of the ideas, Republicans are wondering how all of this will be paid for.
Drive anywhere outside of a major metropolitan area, and you will find roads and bridges in need of serious repair. Talk to business owners, and they will tell you how the difficulty of moving goods from where they are produced to where they are sold hurts their margins. It is time to improve the aging infrastructure of the United States. Regardless of how policymakers decide to finance such a project, the multi-year infrastructure investment will boost economic growth, create jobs and provide a significant opportunity for middle market businesses.
The combination of improving economic data, stronger corporate earnings, and, particularly, potential policies from the Trump administration has created a heady brew for domestic equity markets. Even stocks abroad are posting robust returns. While President Trump’s plans for infrastructure spending, tax cuts, deregulation, and generally growth-focused policies are a key factor in the current U.S. stock rally, these policies are also a main source of uncertainty, and therefore risk, for investors.