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Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management views the risk of recession as low in the short term. Gas prices have garnered a great deal of attention and do put a dent in the economy’s potential growth rate in the months ahead. However, a sustained increase in the price of oil well above current levels would be necessary to create a recession. The biggest risk to the economy exists in 2013.

We reiterate five themes that serve to protect portfolios to some degree and offer some upside potential: gold as a hedge against currency realignments, oil as a hedge against Middle East instability, exposure to the global consumer over the long term, exposure to Asia (ex-Japan) over the long term, and exposure to relative value hedge managers who can move capital more nimbly and take advantage of asset mispricings.

Investors who prefer a less volatile loan return may favor the U.S. loan market. Less risk-averse investors may find the potential for higher loan returns in the European loan market appealing as they may feel the additional spread premium offered in that market compensates for the additional macroeconomic and market technical risk.

Historically, institutional investors have searched new areas for investments that add return and reduce risk, particularly in today’s volatile and synchronized global financial markets. One area that is coming into focus, with low institutional investment thus far is agriculture. At the same time investor interest grows, the need for capital by agriculture is rising in order to meet the demands placed upon food production by a growing world population, rising incomes and urbanization.

Rather than trying to seasonally time the market, most investors would be better served by staying fully invested unless there are fundamental reasons to reduce stock exposures. Volatility is likely, as investors weigh the ongoing debt crisis in Europe, the slowdown in China, the strength of the U.S. economy, and the resolution of the "fiscal cliff". But looking out longer term, stocks currently look relatively well-positioned, especially compared to alternatives such as cash and bonds.

This paper addresses how inefficiencies may be exploited to help generate alpha. This viewpoint is developed from our assertion that outperformance requires strong fundamental research and insight by skilled managers, and looks at the methods by which alpha may be extracted under the umbrella topics of Concentration, Opacity (or lack of public information), Illiquidity, Leverage, and Skill (COILS).

A long-term perspective is difficult to maintain through the roller coaster of the past 10 years. It is reasonable to wonder when we will revisit the much preferred bull market of the 1980s and 1990s. While we think world equity markets should earn positive real rates of return over the next five to 10 years, we are less certain there will be a multi-year, low-volatility run-up.