It appears that uncertainty and volatility are going to be riding with us for a while. There are big risks, to be sure, but big opportunities as well, and the key is to have capital available to capture those opportunities, which means that you have to avoid meaningful losses during the really rough times. It will take prudence and commitment to emerge from this journey safely and securely.
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Rockefeller Capital Partners Investment Research Analyst Jessye M. Ball reports on the views of Asian hedge fund managers after a recent trip to the region.
In the wake of the financial crisis and an uncertain economic outlook, it is timely to think afresh and evaluate new approaches to investing. Dr. Sam Thomas, professor of banking and finance at the Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University, discusses what the changing ‘architecture of global commerce’ means for asset allocation and how families need to be thinking about portfolio risk at the 2012 Global Investment Forum.
We remain in a cyclical bull market for equities. As has been the case in recent weeks, the European situation will be a periodic negative for U.S. investors. The risk of it turning into a 2008 Lehman-style, global contagion, however, is relatively low. Nevertheless, one chief investment officer is closely watching systemic risk indicators for any such signs.
Risk assets are likely to stay weak while uncertainty persists. Investment committee members see this gradually creating a buying opportunity because, whatever the outcome for Greece, they believe the ECB will use overwhelming force to protect all other Euro countries, allowing markets to recover.
The sluggish pace of growth on a worldwide basis coupled with heightened international geopolitical risk leaves the U.S. economy more susceptible to exogenous shocks. Though the probability of the U.S. slipping back into recession has fallen, Fiduciary Trust remains cautious on economic growth going forward.
Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management views the risk of recession as low in the short term. Gas prices have garnered a great deal of attention and do put a dent in the economy’s potential growth rate in the months ahead. However, a sustained increase in the price of oil well above current levels would be necessary to create a recession. The biggest risk to the economy exists in 2013.
We reiterate five themes that serve to protect portfolios to some degree and offer some upside potential: gold as a hedge against currency realignments, oil as a hedge against Middle East instability, exposure to the global consumer over the long term, exposure to Asia (ex-Japan) over the long term, and exposure to relative value hedge managers who can move capital more nimbly and take advantage of asset mispricings.
Investors who prefer a less volatile loan return may favor the U.S. loan market. Less risk-averse investors may find the potential for higher loan returns in the European loan market appealing as they may feel the additional spread premium offered in that market compensates for the additional macroeconomic and market technical risk.
Historically, institutional investors have searched new areas for investments that add return and reduce risk, particularly in today’s volatile and synchronized global financial markets. One area that is coming into focus, with low institutional investment thus far is agriculture. At the same time investor interest grows, the need for capital by agriculture is rising in order to meet the demands placed upon food production by a growing world population, rising incomes and urbanization.