Investing in the Age of Trump

Investors generally dislike uncertainty, and Trump’s unpredictability would seem to be a depressant on investor optimism. Yet the S&P 500 Stock Index has returned about 33% since the 2016 election, confounding the analysts who foresaw doom and gloom in an upcoming Trump administration. While Trump apparently views the stock market as a report card on his performance, he has shown no reluctance to press for policies—including starting a trade war—that have rattled investor confidence. As the economic jolt from lower tax rates diminishes, the spectre of higher federal deficits loom, and animosity toward America's traditional allies increases, the tide could turn.