Resource Search

By assessing the impact of global warming and the transition to “net zero” on the economy, this paper focuses on three dimensions: the direct physical impact of higher temperatures, the effect of stricter environmental policies, and the boost from greater “green investment” to help mitigate and adapt to climate change. While the physical impact of climate change on the economy increases as temperatures rise, the impact will vary across regions.

The year 2024 is now in the history books, marking three notable market highlights: a very good year for U.S., the AI gold rush broadening to other industries and sectors, and a surprisingly tough year for U.S. bonds. Looking ahead to what’s next in 2025, Chief Investment Officer Pete Chiappinelli of Ballentine Partners sees thirteen areas for investors to keep in mind—and it starts with the resilient strength of the U.S. economy.

Amid evolving global dynamics, emerging market corporate debt offers ample and compelling investable opportunities. The diversity of the asset class gives investors a wide spectrum on which to effectuate their views and investment strategies. But investors should navigate with caution and take note of the five themes that will have a notable impact on the asset class: net supply, U.S. policies, crude oil, the trajectory of interest rates and impact on financing costs, and improved default rates.

The good fortune of high productivity growth and a surge in available labor has propelled the U.S. economy, while other economies have been less lucky. A key risk to the U.S. outlook is the potential waning of the positive supply-side factors, though expansionary fiscal policy may cushion any negative impact on growth as the era of sound money lives on.

The expectations of an economic soft landing and favorable equity market in both 2023 and 2024 were possible due to the positive underpinnings of a healthy labor market, falling inflation, and a Fed pivot to rate cutting. In 2025, however, expectations are higher, policy shifts are underway, and several new factors that include tariffs, trade wars, budget deficits, long-term interest rates, and stock market valuation are primed to collide.

Emerging markets (EMs) remain an efficient gateway to powerful secular themes, from technology-driven transformations to consumer growth stories. However, expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar are likely to challenge EM currencies and investor sentiment in 2025, and the 2024 U.S. election introduced a new layer of uncertainty. While EMs present a landscape of opportunity amid increasing macroeconomic headwinds, investors should be prepared for uneven outcomes across regions.

Although private equity (PE) has been grappling with high interest rates, PE funds and their portfolio companies are marching forward. With inflation moderating and expectations for a rate cut, there is growing cautious optimism for improved PE M&A activity. This Private Equity Survey by BDO polled 484 U.S. PE fund managers and operating partners and 208 CFOs of U.S. portfolio companies to uncover their strategies, concerns, and overall pulse.