While the financial markets have moved well beyond the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, the public trust of a very large sector of the global economy is still severely marred due to continued bad behavior, lack of corporate transparency, accountability and proper risk management, as well as risky business practices. To overcome these shortcomings, the global investment community took on the role of “active stewardship” in capital markets.
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The swishing of the President’s pen on paper to sign protectionist measures into law or executive orders could unwittingly cause a financial storm. So far, investors seemed to have shrugged off the risk of protectionism. Markets also do not seem to expect the proposed border adjusted tax to get enough support in the Senate. However, policy uncertainties over trade, tax code, Obamacare replacement, and even immigration issues could start to weigh on business sentiment and decision making.
Looking at the outlook of the major asset classes, there is potential for a break in the clouds. But overall, the things we have been worried about for some time—high valuations for certain risk assets, record-low interest rates, slow economic growth—have not gone away. We remain concerned that investors are stuck in a low-return world where they will struggle to earn 5% in real terms. As we look across asset classes, we see moderate to expensive valuations, solid but not spectacular fundamentals, and wildcards such as geopolitical shocks.
Over time, and as more investors allocate capital to private equity, the market has evolved to become increasingly sophisticated and competitive. As a result, there has been an expansion of investment scope and a profusion of specialized sub-strategies (for example, co-investing, direct investing, sector-focused strategies) and managers expanding into geographies, sectors, and/or asset classes that may be new to them and their investors. In this context, fund-level net to LP benchmarks, while still necessary, are not always sufficient to evaluate performance.
Investing in a changing world can be challenging. Looking at the current environment, there is a wide array of possible outcomes due to heightened political uncertainty in Europe related to a number of key elections in the region and policy upheavals at home. These changes carry the potential to disrupt and dislocate markets. To this end, investors should be prepared to act quickly—as they did in early 2016—to exploit this volatility. It then becomes vital to identify the major themes driving change.
Last year, the Hong Kong government established two sovereign funds to stimulate private investments and increase deal flow in local Hong Kong technology start-ups. Given the intense competition for good opportunities, high quality assets and the great responsibility that these funds hold in their hands, there has been greater transparency and recognition for more overt accountability and governance. Looking at it from the professional investor viewpoint, it becomes clear the onus is on the investor to prove that it is the right partner—responsible, professional and able to add value.
Economic and demographic strengths have combined to make India the world’s fastest growing major economy for three years running. In 2016-2017, the country’s GDP, ranked seventh globally the year before, is projected to grow by 6.6%. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, embodies a “can do” spirit and champions a pro-business environment.
The list of national retailers that have filed for Chapter 11 protection in recent years with the intention of reorganizing but instead wound up liquidating. Remember Circuit City, KB Toys, Borders, Linens-N-Things, and Sports Authority? All gone. Earlier this month, The Limited, an apparel chain dating back to the 1960s, became the first retail casualty of 2017 when it announced it would be liquidating all 250 of its stores. Others are sure to follow.
Investing in an organization or fund with the aim of generating social or environmental impact alongside a financial return is a concept that has been gaining wider appeal and attention in wealth management. Often known as impact investing, the concept has become an industry. The Global Impact Investing Network estimates impact investments totaled $60 billion in invested capital in 2015.
The first quarter may be an accurate forecast of the performance of risk assets for the entire year, which is likely to be one of a flat average and a wide range of individual monthly returns. After the initial five-week decline in risk asset prices, global stocks reversed their initial losses, high-yield bonds spreads tightened, and the CRB Commodities Index finished higher by the end of the quarter than at the beginning of the quarter. The latest pattern in risk assets is unstable, similar to previous market tumbles and rebounds.