The change in market psychology since the 2010 elections and the passage of year-end legislation to renew the Bush administration tax cuts should continue setting a positive tone for financial markets in 2011. We expect an expanding domestic economy, coupled with continued dynamism in the developing world, to set equity markets up for continued gains.
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Thanks to dedicated financial infrastructure and full research coverage, local currency debt is now a plausible and enticing asset class. Fundamentals continue to improve even after being tested by the 2008-2009 financial crisis, while supporting technical factors such as increased liquidity and a broader investor base also have increased its attractiveness.
Forecasts for the demise of the bond market have popped up repeatedly during the past two years only to be deflated by yet another bond market rally. Arguably, it is different this time. Rising rates seem close at hand, and this paper provides detail on that view. At the same time, the paper cautions against overestimating the downside risk in bonds.
Owners who are looking to transition their businesses face the question of whether it is better to sell now or wait until later, particularly in light of the current tax situation. In making this consideration, they should consider the pros and cons of various options: status quo, management buyout, ESOP, sale to a financial buyer, or sale to a strategic buyer.
Until a few years ago, gas prices rose when oil prices increased and fell during times of ample oil supply. However, natural gas is no longer following the usual pattern, due to an abundance of gas resulting from new technologies. Investors who think the gas-oil price link still exists may find themselves making costly mistakes.
Inflation in emerging economies will remain a concern in the near term but could peak much sooner than expected as tighter monetary policies take hold. The rise in input costs around the globe could potentially impact profit margins; however, low wage growth, positive operating leverage and modest pricing power likely will buffer the downside in most sectors.
This paper addresses a planning technique designed to allow taxpayers to take advantage of the increased exemptions available for the next two years while maintaining some control over the ultimate disposition of wealth.
President Obama's proposed budget for fiscal year 2012 includes a reduction in the real estate exemption, a minimum 10-year term for new GRATs, and restrictions on valuing family-controlled entities as well as higher tax rates and reduced savings from itemized deductions for higher-income individuals.
Municipal securities continue to provide yields in excess of Treasuries, despite their tax-favored status. For tax-exempt accounts, we continue to see opportunities in corporate debt, both investment grade and the highest quality non-investment grade, as well as in select international sovereign debt issues.
Multiple constraints limit the use of leverage, the nature of the assets that can be leveraged and the acceptable levels of total portfolio and asset-specific risks. These constraints can make leverage efficient for only a narrow set of portfolios. Leverage is also subject to concerns such as unanticipated capital calls and illiquidity spirals.