While we believe the scale and scope of current market risks are not enough to topple the markets, we feel a correction of some magnitude is warranted given how a confluence of risk factors could adjust global growth expectations. As such, we are recommending a modestly more defensive posture despite seemingly attractive valuations.
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We expect 2011 growth will fall into the lower end of the 3.25% to 3.75% range. Pockets of economic weakness are likely to persist – in unemployment, housing and consumer confidence – but the general economic climate is far healthier than was the case a year ago. Political and geo-political issues, we believe, are the most significant threats to continued recovery.
We have begun recommending that investors use recent equity market weakness to rebalance portfolios and lift international equity allocations. We have further suggested that investors prioritize shifting allocations toward international equity strategies with a higher allocation to Japan.
The recent recession has certainly had a major impact on the financial condition of most municipalities. While we believe this may lead to an increase in defaults over the next few years, we do not anticipate widespread defaults or major losses at the bondholder level. Any defaults that do occur will likely be well telegraphed and identifiable through fundamental credit research.
Expected changes in gift, estate, and generation-skipping taxes after 2012 has led many families and advisors to conclude that 2011-2012 presents a valuable, two-year window of opportunity to update estate plans. However, certain developments suggest the best results may be obtained by acting sooner rather than later.
When the Fed ceases its massive buy program in July, it will be a de facto increase in interest rates. Who is going to step in and fill the void? The conclusion of QE2 is a well known fact, but are the consequences well understood and is this the only market dynamic that will push rates higher?
We continue to recommend that investors focus on high-quality general obligation and essential services municipal bonds as the core of their bond portfolios. We also continue to recommend that investors maintain shorter-than-benchmark durations in order to dampen the risks of rising interest rates.
This paper provides answers to such questions as what is an intentionally defective irrevocable trust; what is meant by defective; when is this type of trust appropriate; how does an installment sale to an intentionally defective irrevocable trust work, and what are the tax considerations?
Private equity investing is not without its challenges. However, long-term returns argue for exposure to this asset class for sophisticated investors. The most important considerations are structure of the investment program, access to top-tier performers, and knowledge about emerging private equity firms.
Given the uncertainty about how long low interest rates will last, now may be a good time to review personal debt as part of overall finances and identify potential refinancing opportunities. In evaluating your borrowing strategy, consider your asset/liability mix, the cost and tax implications of borrowing, and your capacity for debt.