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The prudent investor will seek to capture as many of the opportunities as might be available but will be particularly careful to define his or her real risk tolerance and need for higher returns, hopefully through a cautious evaluation of his or her individual goals and the size of the assets needed to defease them. The spectrum of possible investment stances is large, but the main focus should be on ensuring that one is in the right position within this spectrum rather than being mesmerized with short-term return opportunities.

Modern portfolio theory, while highly useful in illustrating the relative tradeoffs between current and prospective portfolio allocations, should not be used as the primary framework for constructing portfolios for wealthy families. Investors are better served, the authors say, by a goals-based approach that recognizes multiple levels of risk tolerance for distinct goals.

Earnings growth in 2Q for the vast majority of companies will likely be far below last year’s year-over-year gains. Slowdowns in both Europe and China have resulted in lower demand, to an extent, while comparisons to strong 2Q 2011 earnings results will depress year-over-year measures. We are hopeful that more meaningful earnings gains will resume in the second half of 2012.

The author discusses the re-emergence of domestic energy production, illustrates the evolving opportunities and risks brought about by this re-emergence for the United States and briefly touches on potential investment opportunities. This paper has a particular focus on natural gas, the most significant source of domestic energy.

Rental growth is likely to slow in many markets. However, low vacancies and limited construction pipelines as well as the fairly robust global economy should limit any downside in most cities. Regionally, we believe direct commercial real estate in Australia, China, Germany, France, Canada and selected U.S. and Latin American markets should outperform in the next few quarters.

Reporting requirements for capital asset sales have changed, and the IRS is now in a better position to verify and track your activity. This article explains the IRS’ equation: verify + track + match data + audit = increased tax collection.

We continue to be optimistic that earnings will validate market prices, suggesting equities will offer greater reward than bonds. Selected equities also have dividend yields above those available from investment-grade bonds. In many instances, these dividends are supported by growing earnings, raising the likelihood of their increase.

We remain vigilant in assessing near-term and longer-term risks, including U.S. austerity, resurfacing of Eurozone tensions, a Chinese economic slowdown, and oil prices/conflict in Iran. Market gains from here will be built on the back of these risks further receding and the maintenance of global economic growth. We have more confidence in the latter but know the former can result in a bumpy ride.

While the market rally in 2012 has been most supportive for directional trading and especially for emerging market managers, we remain only cautiously optimistic on these strategies since markets may soon be due for a correction. Given the prevailing uncertainties with regard to the economic outlook, we continue to prefer tactical trading strategies.

We continue to recommend a focus on the middle of the risk spectrum and investments with better prospective risk-reward. Included in this space are higher quality equities (with lower economic sensitivity), mortgage and corporate bonds (both investment grade and some high yield debt), global bonds, options-based strategies, and absolute return strategies.