U.S. equity markets surged following the election of Donald J. Trump as the forty-fifth President of the United States, with the S&P 500 rising 5 percent in the last seven weeks of the year. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks added more than 13 percent during the same period. Meanwhile, interest rates rose suddenly and dramatically post-election, leaving bond investors with one their worst four-week losses in decades. Financial markets were surprised by Mr. Trump's win.
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Heading into 2017, the top five investment themes center around prolonged expansion, inflation rising, a new upward interest rate bias, going from global to local, and stock pickers being back in style. With all the dire headlines, it’s easy to forget that we are in the midst of the fourth longest expansion on record. Looming risks exist, namely the prospect of trade wars, rising debt and deficit and other geopolitical threats, but broadly speaking, this expansion environment is positive for equities and other risk assets.
For many family firms, the missing middle is the strategic bridgework spanning the mid-zone between two visions: the entrepreneurial vision that sparks the formation of a business and the long-term vision that allows family firms to pursue goals far into the future. Strategic planning for the medium term—the gap between now and the eventual changing of the guard—lays the bridgework to longevity, whereas insufficient planning may cause the bridge to collapse.
It is near certain there will be sweeping tax legislation in 2017, but not of the sort many expected. Looking back over 2016, there were a few significant tax changes but many proposals and much speculation concerning tightening of regulations and new taxes. Prior to the election, there were expectations of the proposals coming to fruition under a Clinton administration.
History has typically played out such that the president and at least one of the houses of Congress are of different political parties. President-elect Trump, however, will benefit from a “unified government,” which has been an important driver of overall post-election market reactions. With a clean political party sweep, much of what Trump campaigned on will at the very least make it to the bargaining table. What will be the likely impact of a Trump administration on current regulations and legislation, and the potential implications for capital markets?
We often think of Thanksgiving and Giving Tuesday as ushering in the year-end charitable giving season. Year end is not only a time for gratitude, as families gather for the holidays, but also a time to start organizing financially for the close of the calendar year. But year-end giving does not need to be short-term giving. So even as you strive to be tax-efficient and timely in your year-end giving, those gifts can be part of a longer-term charitable giving strategy.
New findings in brain science and neuroplasticity provide clues on how to create and sustain better leaders, especially within family enterprises. Consider some of the roles and functions we commonly associate with effective leadership in such enterprises: clarifying vision; leading change; creating strong connections between disparate groups; making decisions; and overseeing the big-picture perspective. Each of these aspects of leadership requires elaborate orchestration of various neural networks across the brain structures.
There has been so much attention this fall on the presidential election that the end of the year has rapidly come upon us. Regardless of the outcome of the election, neither candidate will be able to change the current tax law this year, so most of the usual year-end tax planning strategies remain the same. However, one recent development has caused us to move the always-important “Review your estate plan” to the top of the list.
Donald Trump will become our 45th President, and the Republicans will retain hold of Congress. Based on the Republican Party platform, this could result in dramatic tax code changes. Looking at President-elect Trump’s proposed changes to the tax code, we assess their likelihood of being passed in the next two years.
The nonconsensus outcome happened, and Donald Trump will become President. Investors should bear in mind that stock markets will eventually focus on the economic and earnings outlook over the next six-to-18 months, more than politics. We look at the near-term and long-term implications.