Market volatility in late 2018 has investors wondering if 2019 will bring global recession and investment losses. Chief Investment Strategist Jim McDonald answers tough questions about the global economy and how markets should react. Chief Economist Carl R. Tannenbaum also shares his views on the nature of recessions.
One element of successful investing is assessing how investor expectations may change over time. We began warning in mid-2018 of a growth slowdown in 2019, which came to a head in the fourth quarter when growth concerns led to a significant reduction in risk appetite and valuations. Souring investor expectations set the stage for positive surprises over the next year, which we think improves the outlook for risk taking.
In response to the proliferation of new private credit strategies and managers, a new set of benchmarks was developed to help limited partners assess the performance of new and existing fund managers (general partners or GPs). By focusing on the underlying risks assumed by a credit manager, the subordinated capital and broad credit opportunities benchmarks will assist limited partners in better evaluating risk-adjusted performance and identifying the most talented managers.
Private investments, particularly private equity and venture capital have provided the strongest relative returns for decades. For families with multigenerational wealth, they may be particularly well positioned to consider allocating 40% or more of their assets to private investments. Assuming these families have the requisite long-term time horizon, patience, and ability to act quickly, they stand to benefit not only from the potential for higher returns but also from the tax-advantaged nature of private investments. Life could get better after 40%.
The year 2018 ended on a far different note than it started, with the economy stronger and markets weaker than most had projected at the outset. More perplexingly, underlying economic fundamentals remain quite strong with declining gas prices and interests, and steady jobs and wage growth.
Doug Balfour, author of Doing Good Great: An Insider’s Guide to Getting the Most Out of Your Philanthropic Journey, and Pat Armstrong of the Abbot Downing Institute for Family Culture discuss best practices for engaging in philanthropic activities as a family. Both believe that while each family’s questions are unique to their individual circumstances, there are common themes and patterns associated with the exploration of the “why” of their giving as well as the evolution of their philanthropy.
In a summary of the tax law signed on December 22, 2017, there are still seven individual tax brackets, but the top rate was lowered from 39.6% to 37%. Most of the law's provisions became effective on January 1, 2018, with numerous provisions expiring after 2025. Like most tax laws, it is neither positive nor negative in and of itself; rather, its effects will vary according to taxpayers' individual circumstances. The bill includes both personal and corporate tax changes, including key provisions applicable to high-net-worth individuals.
Reviewing the changes to the Tax Reform law from the lens of tax-efficient giving, it's clear it created some philanthropic winners and losers for the next few years. With the elimination of the phase-out of itemized deductions, donors who itemize can take advantage of the full amount of their charitable gifts, subject to Adjusted Gross Income limits. For donors who can no longer itemize, there are several good strategies to mitigate the loss of the deduction, including the use of IRAs, donor advised funds, and gifts of appreciated property.
At the start of 2019, the market’s perception of risks and the resulting volatility is high, a stark contrast to the complacency and strong growth expectations in the prior year. It is important to reflect on recent history, but it is also important to recognize how expectations can change and stay grounded in a broad understanding of the business environment and market valuations—thus our themes as outlined in this Market Insights: the late stage expansion; the not-so-invisible hand; diversification fatigue; and not all international markets are equal.
The results of the U.S. Family Business Survey findings brought out the importance of being prepared to compete in a far more digital economy. Family businesses have built up trust among loyal employees and their ownership group. So how to turn values like loyalty and hard work into a multi-generational success story?