As higher interest rates, trade disputes, and slowing global growth cast a chill over markets, the US economy is completing a shift from a period of extended growth to the late stage of an economic cycle. While we do not know when exactly winter will arrive for the economy and markets, we are advising investors to brace for harsher climes. At the same time, we also encourage them to take advantage of an unseasonable mild stretch.
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While the Treasury curve has continued to exhibit a flattening trend, taking it closer to an inversion, the municipal curve has marched to a different beat, even steepening slightly in 2018. The difference is apparent, especially when using a tax adjusted municipal curve to get a taxable equivalent. In fact, the relative slope between Treasuries and municipal debt is hovering around a record high, leading us to believe that municipal bonds are an attractive option for taxable investors relative to other fixed-income opportunities.
While the headline index reading continues to indicate middle market conditions are robust, the forward-looking Middle Market Business Index (MMBI) subindices imply that inflationary pressures and a tight labor market may in part account for reduced enthusiasm and uncertainty heading into 2019. Clouds are forming on the horizon related to declining fiscal outlays later in 2019, inflationary pressures, and an uncertain outlook for tariffs and trade policy. As operating margins become tighter, companies are evaluating their ability to pass through cost increases to their customers.
Whether it’s dealing with a growing number of regulations or shoring up data privacy measures in response to heightened scrutiny, the tech industry is facing both opportunities and challenges as companies decide on how to scale sustainably without sacrificing their business goals and ambitions. How they respond will dictate its fate in the years to come. Here are 10 trends that will likely shape tech in 2019 and beyond.
Cyber-attacks are increasing in sophistication and magnitude of impact across all industries globally and can negatively impact a company's reputation and market value. Thus, all companies need to fully understand the value of the information assets they possess, the cybersecurity related risk of a data breach, and then factor the benefits and risk variables into their respective business equation. Spending thousands of dollars on some or all of the key cybersecurity recommendations would significantly reduce the impact of a data breach, thus saving millions of dollars.
The volatility in the markets at the end of 2018 raised concerns about the outlook for 2019. Investors may have worried that sources of support were “beyond the peaks”—peak liquidity and then, probably, peak growth in GDP and corporate earnings.
Women continue to make great strides in wealth. However, a general theme emerges across research revealing women are still restricted by their own lack of confidence in terms of financial knowledge and the approach to investments, risk, and their role in a business. Given that most women will have sole responsibility for their wealth at some point in their lives, it is critical for women to take ownership of their wealth.
The U.S. is currently at an inflection point economically and culturally with the advent of new technologies and an anxiety on the part of those who fear a future that they can’t quite envision fully with themselves in it. Gordon Fowler, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, and Jon Meacham, presidential historian, engage in a dialogue about how the history of America provides context and insights into current events in the U.S. and across the world.
Investments into qualified Opportunity Zone Funds offer attractive tax benefits, while catalyzing capital inflows into economically distressed communities. However, prudence is necessary in evaluating these investment opportunities as they come to market.
Studies have shown that investors who engage in market timing must achieve a minimum of 70% accuracy in predicting market moves. Even the best “market gurus” who engage in market timing fell far below that level. So what does work for investors who want to avoid losing money during an equity market downturn?