The Real Economy: U.S. Growth and the Business Cycle

The economic impact of the tax cut peaked in October 2018 and is now fading. If a bipartisan U.S. federal budget agreement cannot be reached before the end of 2019, a $126 billion fiscal cliff awaits the U.S. economy in the 2020 fiscal year, and will begin acting as a drag on overall growth later in 2019. A review of leading indicators of economic activity can provide critical insight as the U.S. economy heads into the late innings of this current business cycle.