The Idea Multiplier: An Acceleration in Innovation is Coming

Robotics and artificial intelligence seem to allow us to do more with less, but this isn’t reflected in productivity measures. In this paper, we identify a phenomenon that helps explain the post-2000 decline in productivity growth: a stagnation in the expansion of new ideas, as measured by the “Idea Multiplier.” We also expect productivity growth to climb above 1% over the next five years, which translates to higher profits for companies, higher wages for workers, and stronger global economic growth.