Global Economic Update, Third Quarter 2019

Up moderately, the real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019 in the U.S. The increase reflected greater inventory buildup and exports pulled forward amid tariff fears. Forecasts for the second quarter were measurably lower, with consensus between 1.5% and 2.0%. Labor conditions remain strong while consumer confidence has trended down. Outside the U.S., the European economy continues to show signs of weakness. The U.S.-China relations goes beyond unresolved trade and tariff issues. Geopolitical tensions reamain a source of potential volatility, as heightened conflict with Iran has impacted the oil markets.