2018 Outlook: An Object in Motion

U.S. economic momentum, already positive, will increase further due to the tax package. Interest rates are likely to rise throughout the year posing a headwind for longer duration core bonds. Equity valuations are underpinned by the interest rate and macro environment, but continued increases would become more concerning if inflation makes a comeback. Europe and Japan are also gaining momentum and are earlier in their economic cycles, contributing to the global synchronized growth. Individual risks are moderate, but collectively could pose a challenge, particularly in the second half. Newton’s First Law seems to apply well enough: an object in motion stays in motion … unless acted upon by an unbalanced force.