2016 Post-Election Perspectives
Donald Trump’s election as the 45th President of the United States on November 8, 2016 was an unexpected outcome that caused immediate volatility in the market environment. As the impact of the election results continue to unfold in the coming months, this page will be updated with perspectives that provide a closer look at the near- and long-term implications of a Trump presidency on the financial markets, investment management industry, economic growth, healthcare, taxes and estate planning, interest rates and trade.
The 2016 post-election perspectives are presented below by the most recent publication month and in alphabetical order by their content title.
January 2017
Investment Insights Weekly—Inking the Inauguration
Bank of the West
President Trump was inaugurated into office last week amid rallies and protests lining the streets that continued into the weekend. In his first few days in office, Trump has already put forth executive orders to freeze new agency regulations, withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. These actions will have strong effects on production and trade for the U.S. on a worldwide scale. While the domestic growth forecast may be notably improving, investors are on standby to determine which campaign assurances will become reality.
December 2016
Capital Perspectives
Wilmington Trust
History has typically played out such that the president and at least one of the houses of Congress are of different political parties. President-elect Trump, however, will benefit from a “unified government,” which has been an important driver of overall post-election market reactions. With a clean political party sweep, much of what Trump campaigned on will at the very least make it to the bargaining table. What will be the likely impact of a Trump administration on current regulations and legislation, and the potential implications for capital markets? Looking closer at how Trump’s proposals might impact GDP growth and the overall economy, there are possible short-term wins as well as long-term concerns.
Market Commentary 2016 Q4 – America Voted for Economic Growth
North Sky Capital
Thank goodness the U.S. election is over so we can all stop slinging arrows at each other and get on with our lives for at least the next 18 months. America is divided, where roughly half the voters wanted him and the other half wanted her. America got him. So what does that mean if you are a private markets investor, especially if you are an impact/cleantech investor?
Year-End Wrap Up and Post-Election Planning
Glenmede
It is near certain there will be sweeping tax legislation in 2017, but not of the sort many expected. Looking back over 2016, there were a few significant tax changes but many proposals and much speculation concerning tightening of regulations and new taxes. Prior to the election, there were expectations of the proposals coming to fruition under a Clinton administration. With the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President, this is no longer the case. Many scenarios are possible, but bear in mind lower income tax rates may not occur until 2018 and estate tax changes may be even more remote, if at all.
November 2016
Economic & Market Commentary: Post 2016 Election Comments
Pitcairn
On November 9, 2016, many Americans woke up to (or stayed awake for) an unexpected election outcome. As of that day, the downside for the DOW and the S&P 500 Index appeared to be less than the declines that occurred after the 2008 and 2012 elections. However, it is still early. During these uncertain times, it is best to stick with your investment plan as we wait to see how trends play out in the coming months and longer term.
Election Impact on Tax Policy: 3 Things to Know About Tax Reform in 2017
RSM US
With Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and the White House, there are three things to know about heading into 2017: (1) expect tax reform to be a high priority; (2) individual tax reform will focus on lower rates but expect to lost some deductions and credits; and (3) business tax reform will focus on rates, depreciation and international taxes.
Election Results May Provide Opportunities for Major Tax Law Changes in 2017
PwC Private Company Services
The results of the 2016 elections for control of the White House and Congress will have a significant impact on the direction of tax reform over the next four years. President-elect Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress are expected to push for action on comprehensive tax reform that would lower both individual and business tax rates. Still, prospects for the enactment of such legislation remain in question, given differences between the two political parties on how much tax should be paid by upper-income individuals.
Here's What a Trump Presidency Means for the Economy
RSM US
The upset presidential election victory of Donald J. Trump and the Republican hold of the House of Representatives and the Senate signal major changes ahead in both the federal government’s approach to growth and the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy. Most evident will be a return of supply-side tax cuts, large operating fiscal deficits, and a move back toward more traditional monetary policies that, over time, should lead to higher short- and long-term interest rates. There are other implications of a Trump presidency, and a closer look shows changes coming for growth, taxes, infrastructure, interest rates and trade.
Investment Insights - The Results Are In
Bank of the West
Markets, United States citizens, and most of the world watched anxiously as the U.S. election unfolded into a Donald Trump victory for President. Initial volatility has tempered, and as market participants digest the uncertainty surrounding future policy, it is important to remember that the election results is yet another factor to work through as an investor. That said, the U.S. economy and political structure are enormous, which will make dramatic changes tough to implement in a month, a year, or even a presidency.
Investor Insights: Perspectives on the 2016 Election
NEPC
This webinar and presentation provides an overview of where we are today and views from the investment management industry on the impact of the election across the US, developed and emerging markets.
Markets Struggle for Post-Election Clarity
Ballentine Partners
With last week’s historic election now behind us, investors are feverishly recalibrating their plans in light of its stunning outcome. The despair registered in the early hours after the polls closed on November 8 turned sharply into euphoria as investors focused on the “pro-growth” agenda of a Republican president and control of both congressional chambers. Since the election, those industry groups perceived as winners (e.g. banks, pharmaceutical companies, and industrials) have staged enormous rallies while other groups (e.g. utilities, consumer staples and technology stocks) have struggled.
Post Trump: The Irony of Stan Druckenmiller's Mistake on Gold
Dillon Gage
We expect the markets’ knee-jerk reaction to sell gold post a Trump victory will reverse with the bottoming process beginning this week. Framed around the well documented bearish arguments of Stan Druckenmiller on gold last week, there are reasons why gold will be more important as the generational bond bull market now closes. As investors begin to look for portfolio diversification and wealth preservation in the new rising rate cycle, gold’s uncorrelated liquid returns will have increasing appeal, particularly with foreign investors hurt by dollar strength.
President-Elect Donald Trump: Turnaround Time
PwC Private Company Services
What do the election results mean for healthcare? Like a chief executive hired to turn a failing company into a profitable one, president-elect Trump has said he will take an unflinching corporate approach to overhauling the US healthcare system. For an industry that prefers stability to surprises—and one that has worked to adapt to the Affordable Care Act—Trump’s “repeal and replace” agenda may create new uncertainty and opportunity for healthcare leaders. Trump’s corporate business tools will likely be challenged as he attempts to reshape the U.S. health industry, which does not operate like a typical business sector.
Post-Election Tax Policy Update: Trump's Win Expected to Bring Tax Law Changes
Plante Moran
Donald Trump’s election as the 45th President of the United States on November 8 is expected to bring changes to the tax laws for individuals and businesses. President-elect Trump had made tax reduction a centerpiece of his economic plans during his campaign, saying he would, among other things, propose lower and consolidated individual income tax rates, expand tax breaks for families, and repeal the Affordable Care Act. As the next few weeks and months unfold, taxpayers will learn more about Trump’s tax plans. This tax alert covers the projected impact based on President-elect Trump's statements and proposals on taxes and tax policy during the campaign, including: first 100 days; individual taxation; business taxation; healthcare-related taxes; international; and lame-duck tax legislation.
Post Election Updates – Trump and Taxes
Glenmede
Donald Trump will become our 45th President, and the Republicans will retain hold of Congress. Based on the Republican Party platform, this could result in dramatic tax code changes. Looking at President-elect Trump’s proposed changes to the tax code, we assess their likelihood of being passed in the next two years.
Post Election Updates – Gridlock, Growth and Economic Cycles
Glenmede
The nonconsensus outcome happened, and Donald Trump will become President. Investors should bear in mind that stock markets will eventually focus on the economic and earnings outlook over the next six-to-18 months, more than politics. We look at the near-term and long-term implications.
Shock and Awe in Financial Markets
Ballentine Partners
If President-elect Trump fulfills many of his campaign promises, the impacts will be felt across the world. More will be known about these effects over the coming months and quarters, and for wealth managers the focus will be on the potential short and long-term impacts on their clients’ financial well-being. Markets hate uncertainty and the uncertainty created by a President Trump triggered a “sell first/ask questions later” response in financial markets. There will undoubtedly be both winners and losers in the financial markets.
The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election: Results and Analysis
FTI Consulting
After one of the longest, most volatile and arguably most contentious presidential campaigns in modern American history, Donald Trump has emerged as the president-elect and will be the 45th President of the United States of America. As the immediate shock of the result subsides, the country will begin to sort-out the implications of the election over the coming days. What can you expect moving forward?
U.S. Election: What You Need to Know
Northern Trust
Defying the betting odds and pollster predictions, Donald Trump has pulled off an improbable victory. As an “unknown unknown,” Trump’s election introduces a level of policy uncertainty. Republicans hold the majority in Congress, but President-elect Trump will have to spend his early days building bridges to gain support for his agenda. Whether the Trump victory impacts the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates next month will be a function of the global financial market volatility: a significant and prolonged period of heightened volatility may keep the Fed on hold.